中國新版排放標準威脅車企利潤
Three months after announcing the biggest annual loss in the company’s history for 2015 due to its diesel emissions scandal, Volkswagen in July unveiled unexpectedly high profits for the first half of this year, fuelled by sales of VW cars in China.
大衆汽車(Volkswagen)今年7月意外宣佈，受中國市場銷售提振，今年上半年利潤強勁。三個月前大衆宣稱，因柴油排放醜聞影響，該公司在2015年創出歷史上最大規模的虧損。
There, unlike Europe and the US, the VW brand has not been tarnished by the German carmaker’s scandal, and Chinese demand for vehicles is strong in spite of the country’s economic slowdown.
與歐洲和美國市場不同，這家德國汽車製造商的品牌名譽在中國市場沒有遭受影響。儘管經濟增長放緩，但中國人對汽車的需求依然強勁。
But China’s tolerance for polluting vehicles — the market is dominated by cars powered by petrol engines — is now drawing to an end. A rollout of new legislation due to be completed by 2020 aims to tighten China’s rules on cars’ emissions and fuel economy, bringing them into line with western countries and thereby curbing the industry’s contribution to global warming and air pollution.
但中國對污染汽車的容忍趨於結束——在中國市場佔據主導地位的是汽油發動機汽車。中國預計在2020年完成實施新的排放標準，以收緊對汽車排放和燃效的規定，使之趕上西方國家的標準，從而抑制該產業對全球變暖和空氣污染的影響。
The legislation is expected by some analysts to hit the profits of companies operating in what is the world’s largest automobile market, but VW and other overseas carmakers are better placed than their domestic rivals to cope with China’s shift to stricter standards, says Jane Lewis, analyst at Macquarie.
一些分析師預計，此舉將會影響在全球最大汽車市場運營的車企的利潤，但麥格理(Macquarie)分析師簡•劉易斯(Jane Lewis)表示，與中國競爭對手相比，大衆和其他海外汽車製造商更容易應對中國標準趨嚴的變化。
“The domestic brands are hit disproportionately as international brands face similar emission and fuel economy requirements in other markets,” she adds.
她補充稱：“中國品牌受到超出比例的衝擊，而國際品牌在其他市場面臨類似的排放和燃效要求。”
Some overseas carmakers, such as Jaguar Land Rover, may struggle to meet fuel economy targets set by the Chinese government for their fleets but most international brands will reach these goals, says Ms Lewis. The worst hit will be smaller domestic carmakers, she adds.
劉易斯表示，捷豹路虎(Jaguar Land Rover)等幾家海外汽車製造商可能難以在所有車型上實現中國政府設定的燃效目標，但大多數國際品牌將會達到這些目標。她補充稱，遭受影響最嚴重的將是較小的中國本土車企。
The main drivers behind China’s emissions and fuel economy targets are efforts to reduce air pollution in towns and cities and promote technical developments in the domestic auto industry, says a report by the Innovation Centre for Energy and Transportation, a Chinese think-tank.
北京智庫——能源與交通創新中心(Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation)發佈的報告稱，中國推出排放和燃效目標的主要動力是爲了降低城鎮空氣污染，以及提升國內汽車行業的技術發展。
In order to push companies towards hitting fuel-economy targets, Beijing has begun to name and shame carmakers whose fleets are inefficient.
爲了推動車企實現燃效目標，中國政府開始點名批評那些燃效低下的汽車製造商。
Twenty-two carmakers on the Chinese mainland — including joint ventures involving Sweden’s Volvo and Germany’s Mercedes-Benz, as well as big domestic brands such as BAIC Motors — failed to meet their passenger vehicle fuel economy targets for 2015, according to a report released last month by China’s ministry of information technology.
中國工業和信息化部上月發佈的報告顯示，中國內地的22家汽車製造商——包括瑞典沃爾沃(Volvo)和德國梅賽德斯-奔馳(Mercedes-Benz)與中國車企成立的合資企業，以及北汽(BAIC Motor)等國內大型品牌——沒有達到2015年的乘用車燃效目標。
No public action has been taken against non-compliant companies. But overall, the report by the ministry of information and technology found the fuel economy of Chinese carmakers’ fleets dropped 0.9 per cent last year, while those of international brands increased 3.1 per cent.
中國沒有公開對未達標車企採取任何舉措。但整體而言，中國工業和信息化部在報告中表示，中國汽車製造商各車型的汽車燃效去年下降0.9%，而國際品牌的燃效上升了3.1%。
The fuel consumption target for each carmaker’s fleet in 2015 was for vehicles on average to travel 100km on 6.9 litres of fuel. But the average fuel required for domestic and overseas carmakers’ vehicles was 7.04 litres last year. By 2020, the Chinese government wants that figure to fall to 5 litres.
2015年中國乘用車百公里平均燃料消耗量的目標爲6.9升，但國內外汽車製造商的汽車去年的平均耗油量是7.04升。中國政府希望到2020年將百公里耗油量降至5升。
To try and avoid penalties for non-compliance with China’s fuel economy rules, carmakers are starting to change the composition of their Chinese fleets by bringing in electric vehicles. They are also looking to introduce more so-called hybrid vehicles, which have a combination of a combustion engine and electric power.
爲了避免因未達到中國燃效標準而被罰款，汽車製造商開始推出電動汽車，改變它們在中國市場上的車型結構。它們還在考慮推出更多所謂的混合動力車，即既有內燃機，又有電力動力的汽車。
Japanese carmakers including Toyota have already begun to establish factories to produce hybrid vehicles in China.
包括豐田(Toyota)在內的日本汽車製造商已開始在中國建設工廠以生產混合動力車。
This tactic may be less helpful for domestic carmakers as the numbers of electric vehicles they would need to sell in order meet the fuel economy targets is unrealistically high, says Yale Zhang, analyst at Automotive Insight, a consultancy.
諮詢公司Automotive Insight的分析師張豫(Yale Zhang)表示，這種策略對國內汽車製造商可能不怎麼有用，因爲它們爲實現燃效目標而需要銷售的電動汽車數量高得不切實際。
“Right now it looks like no Chinese automakers can hit the targets unless they allocate about 20 to 25 per cent of their sales to new energy vehicles,” he adds. “No one is ready to hit that kind of level by 2020,” he added.
他補充稱：“現在看起來沒有一家中國汽車製造商能夠達標，除非它們將新能源汽車的銷量比例提高至20%至25%。沒有一家能夠在2020年達到那種水平。”
Meanwhile, China is preparing to introduce a new set of emissions testing standards, with tougher limits on exhaust gases such as nitrogen oxides, which cause respiratory diseases.
與此同時，中國正準備推出一套新的排放測試標準，更嚴格地限制氮氧化物等尾氣的排放——氮氧化物等尾氣會引發呼吸系統的疾病。
The so-called Beijing 6 rules that are due to take effect in 2018 will be an adapted version of US emissions standards, and should take a harder line than the EU on nitrogen oxides, which are generated by both petrol and diesel engines.
將於2018年生效的所謂的“京VI”排放標準將是美國排放標準的改編版本，在氮氧化物排放標準上比歐盟更爲嚴格。汽油和柴油發動機均會產生氮氧化物。
Analysts at Bernstein say the Chinese rules represent a “huge challenge for industry profits”, estimating that meeting fuel economy targets alone will cost overseas carmakers Rmb5,000 to Rmb7,000 ($752 to $1,052) per vehicle sold between now and 2020.
伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的分析師們表示，中國新版排放標準代表着“行業利潤面臨的巨大挑戰”，他們估計，僅爲實現相關燃效目標，海外車企就將爲現在至2020年期間售出的每輛汽車多付出5000元至7000元人民幣的成本（合752美元至1052美元）。
But for some domestic brands, whose fleets are increasingly made up of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles, the cost of meeting the targets could be between Rmb10,000 and Rmb16,000 per car for the same period, they add.
但他們補充稱，對一些高耗油運動型多功能車(SUV)銷量佔比越來越高的國內品牌來說，同期爲達標而多付出的成本在每輛車1萬元至1.6萬元人民幣之間。
Jaguar Land Rover said it was confident of meeting all its global emissions targets, including those in China.
捷豹路虎表示，該公司有信心實現所有全球排放目標，包括中國市場的目標。
Fujian Benz Automotive, a joint venture in China involving Daimler, Mercedes-Benz’s parent company, said it was “continuously working on optimising the energy consumption of our vehicles”.
奔馳母公司戴姆勒(Daimler)在中國建立的合資企業福建奔馳汽車(Fujian Benz Automotive)表示，該公司“持續致力於優化本公司汽車的能源消耗”。
Volvo did not respond to requests for comment. BAIC could not be reached.
沃爾沃沒有迴應記者的置評請求，記者聯繫不上北汽。
