文化差異何其大 美國爲何難以理解中國

Do the events that led to the outbreak of the first world war carry lessons for the Sino-American relationship? A century ago it was the ascent of Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm I that unsettled the world; today a rising China is roiling east Asia. Then, as now, domestic politics on both sides played a role; one that is too easily neglected.

導致一戰爆發的事件對中美關係有什麼啓發意義嗎？一個世紀以前，德國在威廉一世(Kaiser Wilhelm I)領導下的崛起讓世界感到不安；如今，中國的崛起讓東亞感到不安。當時和現在一樣，對立雙方的國內政治都發揮了作用——這是一個太容易被人們忽視的因素。

Why did Britain and Germany – linked by trade, dynastic ties, culture and religion – find themselves at war in August 1914? In part, as historian Paul Kennedy has argued, it was because London’s liberal ideology contributed to its perception of a growing German threat.

1914年8月，存在貿易、王朝紐帶、文化和宗教聯繫的英國和德國爲何開戰？從某種程度上來說，正如歷史學家保羅•肯尼迪(Paul Kennedy)所指出的，那是因爲倫敦的自由主義意識形態強化了其關於德國威脅日益加劇的認識。

Filtered through liberalism’s lens, Germany looked militarist, autocratic, mercantilist and statist – and contempt for the country’s political culture added to London’s disquiet. When the war began, it quickly came to be seen as a liberal crusade against “Prussianism”.

透過自由主義“棱鏡”，德國給人看到的是軍國主義、獨裁、重商主義和計劃經濟——而對該國政治文化的鄙視也增加了倫敦的不安。當戰爭爆發時，人們立刻將之視爲一場討伐“普魯士主義”的自由主義戰爭。

In this respect, today’s Sino-American rivalry resembles the pre-1914 Anglo-German antagonism. The speed of China’s growth worries US policy makers, as do the geopolitical implications of its economic transformation.

從這個方面來說，當今的中美對抗類似於1914年以前的英德對抗。中國的發展速度讓美國政策制定者感到擔憂，其經濟改革對地緣政治的影響同樣讓美國不安。

Across the American political spectrum, China’s success is attributed to its failure to play by the rules of free trade – for instance, its habit of manipulating the value of its currency and engaging in industrial espionage. Market-oriented liberalism is the dominant ideology in the US and, as in pre-1914 Britain, it shapes policy makers’ image of their supposed adversary.

在美國政界上下看來，中國的成功得益於其沒有遵守自由貿易規則，例如慣於操縱匯率，以及從事工業間諜活動。以市場爲導向的自由主義是美國的主要意識形態，而正如1914年前的英國一樣，它決定了政策制定者對他們所以爲的對手的印象。

American leaders view China as a nation whose undemocratic political system raises doubts about both the scope of its foreign policy ambitions and its trustworthiness as a diplomatic partner. Moreover, China’s combination of political authoritarianism and state-directed capitalism causes unease because it challenges the supposed universality of the American model of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism.

在美國領導人的眼裏，中國不民主的政治體制令人懷疑其外交政策雄心的範圍，以及其作爲外交合作夥伴的可信賴性。此外，中國政治威權主義與國家資本主義的結合令人不安，原因是它挑戰了美國模式的自由主義民主和自由市場資本主義的所謂普適性。

Aaron Friedberg, a Princeton University professor, says that for Americans, “the success of a mainland [Chinese] regime that blends authoritarian rule with market-driven economics is an affront.” For members of the US foreign-policy elite, the Chinese threat is not so much geopolitical as ideological.

普林斯頓大學(Princeton University)的阿龍•弗裏德伯格(Aaron Friedberg)教授表示，在美國人看來，“中國大陸政權將威權統治和市場導向的經濟學結合在一起所取得的成功是一種侮辱”。對美國上層外交政策制定者來說，中國威脅更多是意識形態層面的，而不是地緣政治上的。

Powerful external and domestic forces are putting the US and China on the road to confrontation. China aspires to be the regional hegemon in east (and southeast) Asia. The US – the incumbent hegemon, having dominated the region since 1945 – is blocking its path.

各種強有力的內外因素正把美中推上對抗之路。中國渴望成爲東亞（以及東南亞）地區的霸主，而自1945年以來主導該地區的現任霸主美國則攔在路上。

Yet America’s predominance in east Asia contributes little to the security of a nation whose geography and unsurpassed military capabilities would anyway make it close to invulnerable. The US is the most secure great power in history – even more so if you factor in the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons. The true cause of American insecurity is not an imminent encroachment on its territory but the risk that US alliances – especially with Japan – will draw it into a regional conflict.

然而，在東亞地區的主導地位並不會讓美國更安全——不管怎樣，美國所處的地理位置和擁有的無可匹敵的軍事能力讓其處於一種近乎無懈可擊的狀態。美國是歷史上最安全的大國——如果你考慮到核武器的威懾作用，就會更肯定這一點。美國真正的不安全因素不是其疆域會遭到入侵，而是同盟關係——尤其是美日同盟——將其拖入地區衝突的風險。

The US wants to maintain its east Asian dominance to keep the region’s markets open to American goods and its people open to liberal ideas. China threatens this openness, on which America’s security is wrongly believed to depend.

美國希望保持在東亞地區的主導地位，以讓該地區的市場繼續向美國商品開放，其民衆繼續接受自由主義思想的薰陶。中國威脅到了這種開放，而美國的安全被錯誤地以爲依賴於這種開放。

The liberal assumptions embedded in American foreign policy put the US at odds with China, and also heighten Beijing’s mistrust of Washington’s intentions and ambitions. The spiral of animosity that threatens to culminate in a confrontation between the two countries is in large part a creation of American policy.

美國外交政策中蘊含的自由主義思想導致美國與中國立場不一致，也加深了北京方面對華盛頓意圖和抱負的不信任感。這種不斷增長的、有可能在兩國對抗中達到頂峯的敵意，在很大程度上是美國政策導致的。

As China’s rises, Washington has a last clear chance to avoid the looming Sino-American conflict.

在中國的崛起過程中，美國有最後的避讓機會，可以避免不斷迫近眼前的中美衝突真正爆發。

This would entail making real concessions on Taiwan and on China’s territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. It would also involve a commitment that Washington would not interfere in China’s internal affairs.

這需要美國在臺灣問題以及中國涉及東中國海和南中國海的領土主張上做出真正的妥協。此外美國也需承諾不干預中國內部事務。

America’s political culture – based on exceptionalism, liberal ideology, and openness – is a big obstacle to coming to terms with a resurgent China. So is the fact that the foreign-policy elite remains wedded to American primacy, and refuses to accept that this will inevitably slip away because of the relative decline of US power.

美國建立在例外主義、自由主義思想和開放觀念等基礎之上的政治文化，是影響美國接受復興的中國的一大障礙。另一個障礙是，美國外交政策圈子中的精英們依然癡迷於“美國主導地位”，並拒絕接受這種地位隨着美國實力相對衰落必將喪失的觀點。

History is also a problem.

歷史也是一個問題

US policy makers are quick to invoke what they take to be the lessons of the 1930s while overlooking the causes of the first world war. David Calleo, a professor at Johns Hopkins, has observed that what we should learn from the earlier conflict “is not so much the need for vigilance against aggressors, but the ruinous consequences of refusing reasonable accommodation to upstarts”.

美國政策制定者迅速擺出他們從上世紀30年代事件中歸納的教訓，卻無視一戰的起因。約翰斯-霍普金斯大學(Johns Hopkins University)的戴維•卡萊奧(David Calleo)教授指出，我們應該從更早那場衝突中學到的主要教訓，“不是必須警惕侵略者，而是拒絕合理包容新崛起者將帶來破壞性後果”。

If the US wants to avoid a future conflict with China, it cannot allow liberal ideology to obstruct a reconciliation with an ever more powerful China. That is the real lesson of 1914.

如果美國想要避免未來與中國發生衝突，就不能讓自由主義意識形態妨礙它與越來越強大的中國修好。這是1914年帶給我們的真正教訓。