中國的道路和工作場所似乎變得越來越安全

GOing by the numbers, China’s notoriously hazardous coal mines have become less perilous in recent years. InJanuary the government said that 538 people had died in mining accidents in 2016, a mere 11% of the death toll a decade earlier. The total number of deathsper million tonnes of coal extracted was the lowest ever. For Chinese industry generally, safety data are improving. In 2002 140,000 people died inwork-related accidents; last year the toll was less than one-third as high. On roads there has been similar progress: 58,000 deaths in 2015, down from 107,000in 2004. Officials admit the statistics remain “grim”, but their efforts to improve safety are apparently paying off.

從數字來看，中國臭名昭著的危險煤礦近幾年正變得不那麼危險。2017年1月，中國政府稱2016年共有538人死於礦難，僅僅相當於10年前死亡人數的11%。每採挖百萬噸煤死亡人數創下歷史新低。中國工業的安全數據也正在普遍改善。在2002年，逾14萬人死於工傷事故；而去年，這一數字不足2002年的三分之一。在道路安全上也有相似的進步：2015年死亡5.8萬人，比2004年的10.7萬人有所下降。官方承認統計表明形勢依然“嚴峻”，但他們改善安全的努力顯然卓有成效。

Perhaps, but the numbers should be treated with caution. In a forthcoming paper, Raymond Fisman of Boston University and Yongxiang Wang of the University of Southern California analyse a government campaign launched in 2004 to reduce accidental deaths at work andon roads. It set annual ceilings for such fatalities, nationally and cials would be punished if targets were exceeded.

或許改善是真的吧，但是這些數字應該被謹慎看待。在一篇即將發表的論文中，波士頓大學的雷蒙德·費思曼和南加州大學的王永祥（音）分析了中國政府2004年發起的旨在減少工傷及道路事故死亡人數的運動。它給國家和地方都設置了年度死亡上限。如果超出了這個限定值，相關官員就將受到懲罰。

To see how the policy has worked,Mr Fisman and Mr Wang calculated the deaths-to-ceiling ratio (reported deaths divided by the mandated ceiling) for each province. Most provinces would be expected to be close to the target, with some slightly above and some slightly almost all the ratios the scholars calculated were shy of 1 (see chart),with an abrupt fall-off in numbers once the ceiling is surpassed. This suggests fiddling: the cliff-edge looks suspicious, and it is highly unlikely that the government set the ceilings generously high. Safety standards, the authorsconclude, have not improved as much as the numbers seem to show.

爲了瞭解政策的實施效果，費思曼和王計算了每個省的死亡與限額之比（報告的死亡人數除以規定的最高限額）。大多數省份都接近限定值，有一些微微超出了一點，一些稍稍低一點。但兩人計算得到的幾乎所有比率都低於1（見圖表），一旦超過上限，省份數量便驟降。這暗示着暗箱操作：限定值附近看起來很可疑，而且政府幾乎不可能把限定值定得很寬鬆。作者總結道，安全標準並沒有數據顯示的那樣提升得那麼多。