市場聚焦:分析師越來越看好中國

Our round-up of the week’s best comment and analysis from the Financial Times focuses on positive signals for the word’s second-largest economy and the implications for investors of the Federal Reserve rate rise.

我們盤點了英國《金融時報》上週的最佳評論和分析，重點關注全球第二大經濟體中國的積極信號以及美聯儲(Fed)加息給投資者帶來的影響。

The selection is taken from our Markets Insight and Smart Money columns, written by industry contributors and FT commentators.

我們選擇的文章來自我們的Markets Insight和Smart Money專欄，它們由行業撰稿人和英國《金融時報》評論員撰寫。

Investors may be wary of being burnt by China but the drumbeat of bullish noises are banging ever louder from bank strategists, argues the FT’s Jennifer Hughes.

投資者可能擔心被中國市場灼傷，但英國《金融時報》的珍妮弗?休斯(Jennifer Hughes)指出，銀行策略師敲出的樂觀的鼓點聲越來越大了。

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citgroup are among the names countering their sceptical clients in putting the case for improving prospects for the country, particularly on calming fears over levels of leverage.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)和花旗集團(Citigroup)等銀行都反駁了客戶的質疑，提出中國前景正在改善，尤其是對中國槓桿水平的擔憂在減輕。

“China bears can still find plenty to cavil at and can, of course, always argue the risk of a nasty policy surprise from Donald Trump outweighs a profit pick-up. But bullish analysts are showing increasing confidence and they can call on numbers, too.

“看空中國的人士仍然可以找到很多挑刺的理由，當然，他們也總能辯稱唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)帶來不利政策意外的風險要壓過盈利增長。但看好中國的分析師信心越來越強，而且他們拿得出數據。”

“Funds invested in the S&P 500 or the FTSE Eurofirst a year ago would have returned 20 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively. The same money in the Hang Seng China Enterprises index would have produced a 28 per cent total return.”

“一年前投資於標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)和富時Eurofirst 300指數(FTSE Eurofirst 300)的基金的回報率分別爲20%和14%。同樣資金如果投資於恆生中國企業指數(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)，那麼總回報率將達到28%。”

But Aberdeen Asset Management’s David Smith sees a less positive signal emerging from Singapore, where the exchange is considering the listing of companies with multiple classes of shares carrying different voting rights — allowing a small group to keep a tight grip on control at the expense of wider shareholder rights.

但安本資產管理(Aberdeen Asset Management)的戴維?史密斯(David Smith)在新加坡看到的信號沒那麼積極，新加坡證交所正考慮讓有多重股權結構的公司上市，這類公司的不同類別股票擁有不同的投票權，使少數人能夠以犧牲更廣大股東利益爲代價牢牢掌握公司控制權。

“There is a real sense that were Singapore Exchange to make such a move, the global contagion would be swift. Instead of discussing dual-class shares, we should be designing a corporate governance framework to help investors operate as responsible stewards.”

“人們確實感覺到，如果新加坡證交所做出此舉，這種做法將在全球快速蔓延。我們不應討論雙重股權架構，而是應設計一個公司治理框架，幫助投資者成爲負責任的管家。”

Moving even further westwards in Asia, the FT’s Henny Sender finds more troubling developments in India’s power sector, where lending by banks has left the country’s financial system exposed.

在亞洲繼續向西，英國《金融時報》的桑曉霓(Henny Sender)看到印度電力行業出現了更令人不安的變化，印度銀行對該行業的貸款讓該國金融體系面臨風險。

“Investors should look more closely at the economy and particularly at the power sector because it is symbolic of the difficulties India faces. The deeply troubled power industry accounts for almost one-tenth of all bank loans in India and thus poses a threat to already weakened lenders.”

“投資者應更密切地關注經濟，尤其是電力行業，因爲它象徵着印度面臨的困境。面臨嚴重困境的電力行業佔印度全部銀行貸款的近十分之一，因此對已被削弱的銀行構成了威脅。”

The Federal Reserve’s rate increase was the big theme of the week both before and after confirmation of the news. Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian forecast that a “beautiful rate normalisation” would be the overarching aim of the US central bank.

美聯儲加息是上週的重要主題，不管是在消息確認前還是消息確認後。安聯(Allianz)的穆罕默德?埃爾-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)預測，“巧妙的利率正常化”將是美聯儲的首要目標。

“The Fed would be transitioning from a highly tactical (“data dependent”) mindset towards a more strategic one; and it is one that enables it to more confidently (and assertively) lead markets rather than follow them.”

“美聯儲將從一種高度戰術型思維（‘依賴數據’）轉向更戰略性的思維；這將令其能夠更自信（且更堅定）地引領市場，而不是追隨市場。”

The FT’s Michael Mackenzie warns of the risks of a complacent bond market as fixed-income investors are not convinced that the Fed will be more aggressive.

英國《金融時報》的邁克爾?麥肯茲(Michael Mackenzie)對債券市場自滿的風險提出警告，因固定收益投資者不相信美聯儲將變得更強硬。

“Having been consistently right over the economy and Fed policy for many years, one can understand the reluctance of the Treasury market to embrace a more bullish growth story. Such thinking may prove very costly for bond investors.”

“在多年來一直正確判斷美國經濟和美聯儲的政策之後，人們能夠理解美國國債市場不願接受一個更樂觀的增長前景。這種想法可能讓債券投資者付出巨大代價。”

“The Fed is walking the line successfully”, summarised the FT’s John Authers as the rate move went from news to fact.

英國《金融時報》的約翰?奧瑟茲(John Authers)在美聯儲加息從消息變成事實時總結道：“美聯儲在鋼絲繩上走得很成功”。

“All of this may make this one of the most happily received rate increases on record. Insofar as the Fed’s aim was to raise rates as gently as possible, so as not to scare the children, it has succeeded. for now, the calm that has lasted since the election remains unpunctured.”

“所有這一切都可能使這次加息成爲有記錄以來市場最欣然接受的加息。如果說美聯儲的目標是儘可能溫和地加息，以免嚇到孩子們，那麼它成功了。但目前，自大選結束以來持續的平靜仍未被破壞。”

It has been tricky to tell how Brexit is being priced in by markets, argues the FT’s Elaine Moore, with gilts not providing a clear narrative.

英國《金融時報》的伊萊恩?摩爾(Elaine Moore)認爲，現在很難確定市場在如何消化英國退歐的影響，英國金邊債券沒有提供明確的信號。

“By contrast, credit default swap spreads appear to have a more direct relationship to what a small number of investors believe the eventual shape of Brexit will mean for the UK economy. As a barometer of investors’ attitude during the two years of negotiations that will soon start, this small, unfashionable corner of the financial market may well start to attract more people and money.”

“相比之下，對於一小部分投資者所認爲的英國退歐最終形態將對英國經濟造成的影響，信用違約互換利差似乎有着更直接的關係。爲期兩年的退歐談判即將啓動，作爲一個衡量在此期間投資者態度的指標，金融市場這塊不太流行的小領域很有可能會開始吸引更多的人和資金。”

While last year’s “regime change” in the US stock market has boosted the opportunities for stockpicking, John Authers finds that active fund managers still face a long, hard fightback against passive investing.

儘管去年美國股市的“機制變革”增加了選股機會，但約翰?奧瑟茲認爲，主動型基金經理仍面臨着一個長期、艱難的對抗被動投資的過程。

The rise of algo trading and passive investing is bringing new patterns and pitfalls for investors, says the FT’s Robin Wigglesworth, who reveals five areas to watch on the terrain of machines and markets.

英國《金融時報》的羅賓?威格爾斯沃思(Robin Wigglesworth)表示，算法交易和被動投資的興起正給投資者帶來新的模式和陷阱，他提出了在機器領域和市場方面的5個關注點。

Marmite manufacturer Unilever is not a national champion and shareholders should be free to sell its stock, says the FT’s Neil Collins, who argues that they have much to thank “Warren Buffett and his Krafty krew” for the jump in the share price.

英國《金融時報》的尼爾?科林斯(Neil Collins)表示，Marmite製造商聯合利華(Unilever)並非國家冠軍企業，股東應有權出售其股票，他認爲，他們要爲該公司股價的飆升大大感謝“沃倫?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)及其卡夫收購團”。