聰明的投資者開始拋售中國房地產

For years, Chinese property has been a sure bet for savvy investors looking to ride the country's economic surge.

多年來，精明的投資者一直把房地產市場作爲分享中國經濟盛宴的一張最穩妥的入場券。

Now, some of the best-known names in Chinese investing are cutting back, at least for the present.

現在，一些最知名的投資者已經開始從房地產市場撤資，至少目前如此。

Since September, Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, widely considered Asia's richest man, has sold office and shopping-mall projects in the cities of Shanghai and Guangzhou. Businessman Richard Li, his son, sold a prime piece of real estate, a mixed-use complex in Beijing's Sanlitun shopping district, for US$928 million in early April.

去年9月份以來，被視爲亞洲首富的香港大亨李嘉誠賣出了位於上海和廣州的寫字樓和商場項目。他的次子李澤楷(Richard Li)則在今年4月初以9.28億美元價格出售了位於北京三里屯的一處綜合物業。

Soho China Ltd., which develops property only in Beijing and Shanghai, sold two office projects in Shanghai in February for 5.23 billion yuan (US$837 million) in total.

今年2月份，只在北京和上海兩地發展房地產項目的SOHO中國有限公司(Soho China Ltd.)以人民幣52.3億元（約合8.37億美元）的價格出售了上海的兩個寫字樓項目。

The move to sell real-estate projects 'is looking like a really smart call right now,' said Colin Bogar, managing director of real-estate private-equity firm MGI Pacific. Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., one of the elder Mr. Li's main property businesses, didn't respond to several requests for comment.

房地產私募股權投資公司MGI Pacific董事總經理博加爾(Colin Bogar)稱，目前看來，拋售房地產項目確實是明智之舉。李嘉誠旗下的和記黃埔有限公司(Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.)沒有回覆記者的置評請求。

The Chinese property market appears to be softening along with the rest of the country's economy. Developers are cutting residential prices in small cities as economists warn of overcapacity. Many property companies are also facing tightening credit, lower returns, slower demand for homes and intensifying competition amid a deepening supply glut.

在中國經濟整體走弱的背景下，房地產似乎也不能獨善其身。隨着經濟學家警告房地產市場供應過剩，開發商已開始下調小城市的住宅銷售價格。在供應過剩加劇之際，許多房企還面臨信貸緊張、回報率下降、需求減少和競爭激烈的困局。

According to property-consulting company Savills China, the average selling price of Grade A office space in Shanghai reached 60,000 yuan per square meter in March, up 1.4% from a year earlier and up 65% since March 2010.

據地產諮詢公司第一太平戴維斯中國(Savills China)介紹，今年3月份，上海甲級寫字樓每平米售價達到人民幣6萬元，較上年同期上漲1.4%，較2010年3月上漲65%。

But rents haven't grown as quickly. In Beijing and Shanghai, average gross yields--annual returns on investments before tax--on office buildings have fallen from a year earlier, according to data from property agency Cushman & Wakefield.

但租金的上漲速度卻沒那麼快。地產諮詢機構高緯環球(Cushman & Wakefield)的數據顯示，北京和上海兩地寫字樓的毛收益率（稅前年投資回報率）已較上年下降。

'Such low rental returns have caused some investors to reconsider their investment options in this sector and geographical area,' said Kent Fong, acting head of capital markets at Cushman & Wakefield in Shanghai.

高緯環球駐上海的資本市場主管Kent Fong說，如此之低的租金回報已經促使部分投資者重新考慮在這一領域和地理區域上的投資選擇。

Overall, investment in China's commercial real-estate markets totaled $3 billion in the first quarter of this year, down 18% from the same period a year earlier, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, a property consultancy. The decline is the biggest since the fourth quarter of 2012, when investment fell 57%.

據地產諮詢公司仲量聯行(Jones Lang Lasalle)稱，今年第一季度，中國商業地產市場的總投資規模爲30億美元，較上年同期下降18%。這是2012年第四季度以來的最大降幅，當時中國商業地產的投資規模下降了57%。

Housing sales in the first quarter fell 7.7% compared with a year earlier, totaling 1.11 trillion yuan, according to government data.

中國政府公佈的數據顯示，中國第一季度的住宅銷售額同比下降7.7%，至人民幣1.11萬億元。

Of course, for every sale there is a purchase, often by investors who view the current dip as a chance to buy low. 'We see a wonderful opportunity,' said Humbert Pang, managing principal for Gaw Capital Partners, a private-equity firm.

當然，有賣就有買，買方通常是將當前價格下探視爲逢低買進機會的投資者。私募股權投資公司基匯資本(Gaw Capital Partners)執行合夥人彭慶邦(Humbert Pang)表示，他們認爲現在是買入良機。

His firm purchased Pacific Century Place, the retail, office and serviced- apartment project in Beijing's Sanlitun that the younger Mr. Li sold this month.

基匯資本本月從李澤楷手中購買了位於北京三里屯的零售、辦公、酒店式公寓項目盈科中心。

The sellers have had fortunate timing before. In 2004, Li Ka-shing's Hutchison Whampoa developed a 40-story Shanghai office tower called The Center and sold it to Hong Kong-based private investor Asia Pacific Land in June 2008 for 4.9 billion yuan. Asia Pacific Land sold it for 4.4 billion yuan in March 2011, but managed to offset the loss from gains in the Chinese currency, according to people familiar with the matter at that time.

Imaginechina/Associated Press2008年，李嘉誠旗下的和記黃埔出售了上海世紀商貿廣場。房地產賣家過去也遇到過好時機。2004年，李嘉誠旗下的和記黃埔開發了40層的上海世紀商貿廣場，並於2008年6月以人民幣49億元的價格將其出售給總部位於香港的私營投資公司亞太置地(Asia Pacific Land)。知情人士稱，亞太置地於2011年3月將該項目以人民幣44億元的價格出售，但人民幣匯兌收益幫助該公司抵消了售價上的損失。

Soho China also sold its projects for more than it paid. It paid a total of 4.07 billion yuan in 2011 for the two projects that it sold, still unfinished, for 5.23 billion yuan in February. Sales of entire buildings by the company are rare; in the past, it has focused on selling individual office units.

SOHO中國上述兩個項目的售價也高於該公司的買入價。該公司2011年收購這兩個項目時共出資人民幣40.7億元，這兩個尚未完工的項目今年2月份的售價爲人民幣52.3億元。SOHO中國很少出售整棟大樓，該公司過去主要開發和銷售商業地產。

More property developers are going abroad in search of fatter profit margins, according to Zhang Xin, Soho China's chief executive officer. At a forum this month, she highlighted the high cost of financing in China, saying that while rental returns from projects in Beijing and Shanghai are only 5%, interest on bank loans is 7%. 'I lose 2%,' she said.

SOHO中國的首席執行長張欣說，有更多的房地產開發商正在到國外尋求更高利潤率。在本月舉行的一個論壇上，她強調了中國目前很高的融資成本。她說，北京和上海房地產項目的租金收益率僅爲5%，而銀行貸款利率爲7%，她因此有2%的損失。

She added that in Manhattan, the rental yield is 5% but the cost of financing is only 2%. In a private purchase lastyear, Ms. Zhang bought a stake in the General Motors building in Manhattan with a partner from Brazil.

她補充說，在曼哈頓，租金收益率爲5%，但融資成本僅爲2%。去年，張欣和來自巴西的合作伙伴收購了曼哈頓通用汽車大廈(General Motors Building)的股份。

Ms. Zhang told The Wall Street Journal last month that the firm has cash totaling 22 billion yuan ready, waiting for a market correction. 'We saw the first wave of credit crunch last summer,' she said. 'We already sensed that it is going to get worse and liquidity is going to dry up.'

張欣上個月對《華爾街日報》表示，SOHO中國共計有人民幣220億元現金，正在等待市場出現調整。她說，去年夏天看到了第一輪信貸緊張行情。她說，該公司已經感覺情況會變得更糟，流動性將會枯竭。

In October, the elder Mr. Li, through his Hutchison Whampoa and Cheung Kong (Holdings) vehicles, sold the 31-story Oriental Financial Center in Shanghai's Lujiazui district for US$1.16 billion to Bank of Communications Co. and Everbright Group. A month earlier, the same units said they were selling Metropolitan Plaza, a shopping mall in Guangzhou, for 3 billion Hong Kong dollars (US$387 million).

Rolento Photography for The Wall Street Journal2013年10月份，李嘉誠以11.6億美元的價格出售了上海陸家嘴31層樓的東方匯經中心。去年10月份，李嘉誠通過旗下和記黃埔(Hutchison Whampoa)和長江實業(Cheung Kong (Holdings))以11.6億美元的價格將上海陸家嘴31層樓的東方匯經中心(Oriental Financial Center)賣給了交通銀行(Bank of Communications Co.)和光大集團(Everbright Group)。此前一個月，和記黃埔和長江實業表示將以30億港元（合3.87億美元）出售廣州購物中心西城都薈(Metropolitan Plaza)。

Not everyone thinks that values have peaked. Mr. Pang, of Gaw Capital, said the US$928 million price tag for Pacific Century Place translates to less than 34,000 yuan per square meter. 'You can't find another piece of land at the same location at that price,' he said, adding that his firm is 'good at extracting value.'

並非所有人都認爲房地產價值已經見頂。基匯資本的彭慶邦說，盈科中心9.28億美元的價格相當於每平米不到人民幣3.4萬元。他說，在相同地理位置上找不到另一塊地有同樣的價格。他補充說，他的公司善於提取價值。

Esther Fung

Esther Fung