FT總編輯巴貝爾專訪比爾蓋茨

Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft and co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, was interviewed by Lionel Barber, the editor of the Financial Times, in front of a live audience. Here is an edited transcript of their conversation.

微軟(Microsoft)創始人、比爾和梅琳達•蓋茨基金會(Bill-Melinda Gates Foundation)聯合主席比爾•蓋茨(Bill Gates)，在現場觀衆面前接受了英國《金融時報》總編輯萊昂內爾•巴貝爾(Lionel Barber)的採訪。以下爲他們兩人對話的編輯實錄。

Why do you believe the rate of innovation is accelerating?

你爲什麼認爲創新的速度在加快？

The magic of software is we can take something and figure it out and replicate it for very little cost. The kind of change we’ve had over the past 250 years, we’ll get more than that in the next 50 years.

軟件的魔力在於，我們可以拿到某件東西，經過分析之後，用很低的成本把它複製出來。我們在未來50年裏經歷的變化，會比在過去250年裏經歷的變化還要大。

Can you assure us that the world of Blade Runner, where the robots will take over, that’s some time away, we don’t have to worry about that?

你能否確定地告訴我們，機器人掌權的“銀翼殺手”(Blade Runner)世界距離現在還有一些時間、我們無需爲此擔心？

They will be benign for quite some time.

在相當長的時間裏，機器人將是沒有危害的。

You’re talking about a world of serious labour substitution. What areas of the labour market are most at risk?

你在談論一個勞動力被大量替代的世界。勞動力市場的哪些部分面臨最大的風險？

For those high-school-educated or below is where there will be substitution. We’ve been destroying manufacturing jobs at quite a rate, and that’s good. It makes things cheaper. People demand more things.

那些高中或高中以下教育程度的人，將成爲被替代的對象。我們一直在以相當快的速度摧毀製造業崗位，這是好事。這讓各種各樣的東西變得更便宜。人們需求的東西變多了。

It does mean that if you’re not educating your population very well, you’re going to have a segment of it that if you want to create jobs, those will be almost entirely subsidised activities.

這的確意味着，如果你不把人口教育得很好，那麼有一部分人的情況是，你想給他們創造工作崗位的話，那些工作將是幾乎完全受到補貼的活動。

Subsided by who?

誰提供補貼？

By the government, by society, if there is desire to have those people have employment.

由政府和社會補貼，如果想要讓這些人就業的話。

In this Uber economy, do you have a message for the London taxi driver?

在當前的優步(Uber)經濟中，您有什麼話想對倫敦的出租車司機講嗎？

The real Rubicon there is the self-driving car. Uber is just a reorganisation of the labour pool into a more dynamic form. The serious revolution is when that capability is machine-based.

真正的分水嶺是自動駕駛汽車。優步只是用一種更有活力的形式把勞動力資源重新組織起來。真正的革命是當機器構成這種行業能力的基礎時。

Are today’s tech companies overreaching?

今天的科技公司擴張過度了嗎？

The guys who invented the steam engine, if you met them you might say they were a bunch of arrogant assholes. But the steam engine still changed the world. It doesn’t matter.

那些發明了蒸汽機的人，如果你們遇上他們，你們或許會說，他們是一羣傲慢的混蛋。但蒸汽機仍然改變了世界。你們怎麼說沒有關係。

Are these tech companies overvalued?

這些科技公司的價值被高估了嗎？

I wouldn’t go long on a basket of pre-IPO tech companies. I don’t think I’d go short either. Yes, a lot of them are overvalued. But the fact that they are a significant change agent that is changing the rules of the game for everything from drug discovery, agriculture, communications, media and entertainment.

我不會看多一些pre-IPO科技公司。我也不看空。是的，大量此類公司的價值被高估了。但事實是它們是一種重要的變革推動者，正在改變一切事物的遊戲規則——從藥品發明、農業、通信、媒體到娛樂等各個領域。

So we’re not in the tech bubble?

這麼說，我們沒有進入科技泡沫？

It’s not as extreme as it was in 2000 all the way up to March 2001. But we will have a few of these companies who have these pre-IPO billion-dollar valuations won’t make that transition.

現在泡沫沒有2000年至2001年3月期間的那麼極端。但會有幾家這樣的科技公司，pre-IPO估值達到數十億美元，最終卻沒有推動上面提到的重要變革。

Lets talk a little about how best we can tackle climate change.

我們談談怎樣最好地應對氣候變化問題吧。

People get a little a misled. They’ll take something like solar PVs [photovoltaic panels], and say, when the sun is shining that daytime energy will replace hydrocarbons. That is completely uninteresting, because you still want to heat apartments at night. The system is all about reliability. You can drive the need for daytime energy down to zero and you still want the power company to have that hydrocarbon plant at night.

人們受到了一點兒誤導。他們會拿着太陽能電池板之類的東西說，當白天太陽照耀時，日間獲得的能源將取代碳氫化合物。這種說法無聊極了，因爲你在夜間仍想給家裏供暖。系統的問題完全在於可靠性。你可以把對日間能源的需求降到零，但在夜裏你仍希望供電公司有碳氫化合物發電廠在工作。

We’ve got a little stuck on inventions that can take us up to 30 per cent of the solution. But because they’re subsidised, they’re not economically viable.

我們有點兒迷戀那些最多隻能解決30%問題的發明。但由於它們受到了補貼，它們是沒有經濟可行性的。

Tell us about the “high wind” option.

跟我們講講“疾風”方案吧。

There’s lots of energy in lots of places of the planet. One of them is the jetstream. And the jetstream, unlike ground wind, is virtually constant. Actually capturing that energy is very difficult because you’re talking about a kite-like structure that is 20,000 feet in the air. You have to decide, if you’re generating energy up there, what’s the cabling system? Independent of the weather, you have to make sure that thing stays up there. There are a few wide-eyed companies in the space.

這個星球上的許多地方存在着大量的能源。其中之一就是噴射氣流。噴射氣流跟地面風不一樣，是幾乎從不停歇的。實際上，捕捉這種能量非常困難，因爲這裏涉及的是2萬英尺高空的一個像風箏一樣的結構。你必須決定，如果你要在那裏生成能量，電纜系統要怎麼弄？不管天氣怎麼樣，你都必須確保一切保持正常。目前已有幾家天真的公司在太空中嘗試。

On the role of government. Reagan said that nine of the most terrifying words in the English language are “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.” Are you sympathetic to that point of view?

關於政府的角色。里根(Reagan)說過，英語中最嚇人的一句話就是“我來自政府，我來幫忙。”你對這個觀點有同感嗎？

The government has a vital role in helping to tackle these problems. The voice of poor people, the price of that marketplace is nil. So some non-bottom line activity, of which government is a big piece and which philanthropy is a small piece has to come in for all the things of that nature.

在幫助解決這些問題時，政府扮演着一個至關重要的角色。窮人發不出聲音，窮人市場的價格爲零。所以，對於所有這類性質的事情，必須有一些非盈利行爲，其中政府佔大頭，慈善佔小頭。

Saying the government can stay out of education, justice, energy, there’s simply no way someone could try that. Somalia shows you how that experiment goes.

說什麼政府可以置身於教育、公正和能源之外，但其實誰也不可能試着這麼做。索馬里的經歷，讓大家看到了實驗結果。

You once said success is a lousy teacher. What did you mean by that?

你曾說，成功是糟糕的老師。這是何意呢？

Anybody who’s super-successful has been misled a little bit. They don’t really know the actual magic factors of luck and skill that led them to this wonderful success. Hopefully they’re engaged in an effort where they have lots of failures, things that try and don’t work.

任何一位超級成功的人都受到了一點兒誤導。他們並不真正瞭解，帶他們取得如此美妙成功的運氣和技能因素，實際上各自發揮了多大的魔力。希望他們能參與一項經歷很多失敗的努力，嘗試一些最後不成功的東西。

What was your biggest failure?

你最大的失敗是什麼？

At Microsoft, the search market, the phone market, there’s a long list of things.

在微軟，搜索市場、手機市場，一長串的東西都是最大的失敗。

If you had one piece of advice to a young person, who wanted to be an innovator, what would it be?

如果請你給想成爲創新者的年輕人提一條建議，那會是什麼呢？

The sciences change the game. Entrepreneurs are the people who take it on, but the thing that shifts the rules of the game is science. If you really want to be part of driving that change yourself, just pick some state-of-the-art science and get involved in it.

科學改變遊戲。企業家是那些付諸行動的人，但改變遊戲規則的是科學。如果你真想親身參與推動遊戲規則的改變，挑選某種最新科技並投身其中就可以了。

You once said you were a hyper-intense person in your twenties. Is that still the case?

你曾說，自己在20多歲的時候是個極端工作狂。現在還如此嗎？

In my twenties, I didn’t believe in vacations. I didn’t believe in weekends. They told me I had to have a board of directors meeting, so I said come in on Saturday morning.

20多歲時，我不看重假期。我不看重週末。他們告訴我，我必須召開一次董事會會議，所以我就說，週六上午開吧。

I am not as fanatical as I was in my twenties and early-thirties. I focused on one thing, which was building a great software company, night and day. I knew the licence plates of all my employees cars. I could tell you when they came into work, when they left work.

現在，我不像20多歲和30歲出頭的時候那麼極端了。過去我只關注一件事，那就是晝夜不捨地打造一家偉大的軟件公司。我那時知道所有員工汽車的車牌號。我能說出他們是什麼時候來上班，什麼時候下班。

As you get older, I don’t know anyone who maintains that kind of intensity. Now I have family and friends. I believe in vacations and weekends, not quite at the European level.

隨着年齡的增長，我不知道誰能一直保持着那種狂熱狀態。現在我有家人和朋友。我很看重假期和週末，不過看重程度比不上歐洲人。

QUESTIONS FROM THE AUDIENCE

觀衆提問

How do you feel about divesting from fossil fuels and shifting that to investing in renewables and energy storage?

你如何看待撤出對化石能源的投資、轉投可再生能源及能源儲存？

I don’t see a direct path between divesting and solving climate change. I think it’s wonderful that students care and now the Pope cares. But that energy of caring, I think you need to direct it towards something that solves the problem.

我不認爲從化石能源撤資和解決氣候變化之間有什麼直接關係。我認爲學生關心這類問題、如今教皇也關心這類問題是件好事。但是，我覺得你們應該把對能源問題的關心引向可以解決問題的事情上。

You mentioned some private tech companies are overvalued. Uber has been valued at $50bn, Palantir at $20bn, Snapchat at over $15bn. Which are the companies that are overvalued?

你提到了一些私人科技公司被高估了。優步被估值500億美元，Palantir被估值200億美元，Snapchat估值超過150億美元。哪些公司被高估了？

When Microsoft was worth $500bn, which inflation-adjusted meant we were briefly the most valuable company of the world, I said to my friend Warren Buffett, what is the CEO of a company that is overvalued supposed to do? Am I supposed to say, hey, we’re overvalued? It’s a funny situation to be in. Even if you know the company will earn three times as much in the future, there are multiples that are too high even for that wonderful future.

在微軟價值達到5000億美元時——在扣除通貨膨脹因素後，這意味着我們短暫成爲全世界最有價值的公司——我對我朋友沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)說，公司價值被高估的CEO應該怎麼辦？我應該說，“嘿，我們被高估了”嗎？身在其中是種很古怪的感覺。即便你知道這家公司未來的收益將比現在高兩倍，但哪怕未來光明，這種市盈率也太高了。

This was particularly because, back then, companies were using stock options as the reward mechanism. You gave somebody enough stock to buy them a summer place. Next thing you know, they have 10 summer places. They have a hard time getting to them all. The person who comes in later, they have zero summer places, because the assumption of that future growth is already built in. That’s the time we moved away from using stock options as a big part of our compensation.

特別是因爲，在當時，公司用股票期權作爲獎勵機制。你給一些人的股票足夠讓他們買下一處避暑別墅。然後你發現，他們有10處避暑別墅。他們很難把所有地方都去到。來晚的人一處避暑別墅都沒有，因爲對未來增長的假設已經確立。那時起我們就不再把股票期權作爲薪酬中的一大塊了。

What’s your take of Alibaba as a company, and beyond that, the role China is playing in a global, digital world?

你怎麼看待阿里巴巴(Alibaba)作爲一家公司的表現，以及中國在全球數字化市場中扮演的角色？

It will be interesting to see as the Western champions try to invade China, as they fight over other markets like Indonesia and India, and as the Chinese companies try to enter the US, how successful they’ll be. So far, they haven’t had much success. Unless they really change the rules of the game, it’s tough. For Baidu to take on Google in search is not an easy thing, which I know from personal experience.

當西方的冠軍企業試圖打入中國市場，當它們爲印尼和印度等其他市場打得不可開交，以及當中國企業試圖進入美國市場時，見證它們會取得多大的成功，將是件很有趣的事。迄今爲止，它們還未取得太大成功。除非它們真的改變遊戲規則，否則很難。對百度(Baidu)來說，想要在搜索領域叫板谷歌(Google)並非易事，這是我從個人經歷中瞭解到的。

Do Chinese companies need to change their corporate governance as they go global?

在走向全球市場時，中國企業需要改變它們的企業治理嗎？

Does Rupert Murdoch need to change his corporate governance? I’m not sure corporate governance is the key indicator of future success in all industries. These are world-class companies doing world-class research.

魯珀特•默多克(Rupert Murdoch)需要改變他的企業治理嗎？我不確定企業治理是否是在所有行業獲得未來成功的關鍵因素。這些是做着世界一流研究的世界一流企業。

Can you share some of the lessons of pain and failure from your early career?

你能分享下事業早期得到的一些痛苦和失敗的教訓嗎？

My basic theory in my twenties is that IQ was fungible. I would hire a great physicists, biologists, someone who was smart, and I would assign them some task, and they would figure out how to do because they have a high IQ.

20多歲時，我的基本理論是智商是可代替的。我可以聘請優秀的物理學家、生物學家和其他聰明人，我會給他們派一些任務，他們會想出完成任務的辦法，因爲他們的智商都很高。

I basically thought that I should never ask somebody to work for somebody who is not smarter than them. We’ll just have this IQ hierarchy. Well that didn’t work for very long. By age 25, I realised IQ comes in different forms. These guys who understand sales and management, that seems to come negatively correlated with IQ. That was befuddling to me.

基本上，我過去認爲永遠不應該讓人們給不如他們聰明的人工作。我們會有這種智商等級制度。不過，這種想法沒能維持很長時間。25歲時，我發現智商有不同的表現形式。一些人懂得銷售和管理，而這似乎跟智商是負相關的。這讓我感到困惑。

Your foundation is called the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundations. If you hadn’t married Melinda, do you think this is the way your career would have developed?

你的基金會名爲“比爾和梅琳達•蓋茨基金會”。如果你沒有娶梅琳達，你覺得自己的事業還會發展到像現在一樣嗎？

When Melinda and I first met, we talked about how getting this wealth back to society in some intelligent way was one of the responsibilities we had in a life together. There’s no doubt her thinking has massively shaped what we thought about the Foundation.

當我和梅琳達初次見面時，我們談論的是以某種聰明的方式讓財富迴歸社會，如何是我們共同生活中的責任之一。毫無疑問，她的想法極大地塑造了我們對基金會的想法。