中國汽車銷量增長回到兩位數
After an uncharacteristic deceleration in 2012, the world’s largest car market is again growing at a double-digit clip, writes Tom Mitchell in Beijing.
在2012年增長罕見放緩之後，中國作爲全球第一大汽車市場的增速再次達到了兩位數的水平。LMC Automotive, a consultancy, estimates that January to September sales of passenger vehicles in China increased 15 per cent to almost 12m units. That compares with expected growth of less than 8 per cent in the US for 2013, and projected year-on-year declines in Brazil, Russia, India, Germany and Japan.
市場研究諮詢機構LMC Automotive估計，今年1至9月中國乘用車的銷售量增長了15%，達到約1200萬輛。而2013年美國市場的增幅預計不足8%，巴西、俄羅斯、印度、德國、日本市場預計將出現同比下降。China’s four richest urban centres seem to be overwhelmed with traffic congestion and related pollution issues.
中國最富裕的四大城市——北京、上海、廣州和深圳面對嚴重的交通堵塞以及相關污染問題，似乎無能爲力。
But Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are just at the point where car ownership traditionally begins to take off – when per capita GDP reaches $10,000. According to Synergistics, another automotive consultancy, that figure in China’s “big four” regional car markets now stands at more than $12,700.
但它們正處在汽車保有量通常將開始快速上升的拐點，即人均國內生產總值(GDP)達到1萬美元。另一家汽車行業諮詢公司Synergistics指出，中國四大地區性汽車市場的人均GDP現已超過了12700美元。Moreover, manufacturers are turning their attention to the smaller cities where more than 80 per cent of the country’s 1.3bn people live and per capita GDP is only about $4,000.
另外，汽車製造商們開始將注意力轉向中小城市，目前中國13億人口中超過80%的人在中小城市居住，這些地區的人均GDP僅爲約4000美元。，“Congestion and pollution issues might have a negative effect [on growth in China’s largest cities], but [smaller cities] still have a lot of potential,” says Ray Bierzynski, executive vice-president of General Motor’s joint venture with SAIC Motor and Wuling Auto in Guangxi province. “Our expansion has got to be in those areas.”
白雷蒙(Ray Bierzynski)是通用汽車(General Motor)與上汽集團(SAIC Motor)和五菱汽車(Wuling Auto)在廣西省成立合資企業的執行副總裁。他表示：“交通擁堵和污染問題或對中國一線城市的汽車銷售增長帶來負面影響，但中小城市仍有很大潛力。我們必須在中小城市謀求增長。”In volume terms, GM is the second most successful multinational car company operating in China. Its various joint ventures with SAIC, First Auto Works and Wuling sold more than 1.1m passenger vehicles over the first three quarters of this year, compared with Volkswagen’s almost 1.9m.
按銷售量計算，通用汽車在進入中國市場的跨國汽車公司中排行第二。今年前三季度，通用汽車與上汽集團、一汽 (First Auto Works)以及五菱組建的多家合資企業的乘用車銷售量超過了110萬輛，同期大衆汽車(Volkswagen)的銷量約爲190萬輛。Analysts attribute GM’s and VW’s success in China to aggressive localisation of production, research and development – a tactic that automakers at the luxury end of the spectrum are also adopting.
分析師將通用汽車與大衆汽車在中國取得的成功，歸因於積極的本地化生產和研發——這一策略也被豪華汽車生產商所採用。Daimler formally opened an engine plant in Beijing in November – its first outside Germany – that will eventually export components to Europe.
今年11月，戴姆勒(Daimler)正式在北京開設了一家引擎生產廠——這是其在德國以外地區設立的首家引擎廠，並且最終將向歐洲出口零部件。Yet China has yet to emerge as a significant automotive exporter as Japan and Korea did before it, especially to the US and Europe. Over the first eight months of this year, China’s vehicle exports fell three per cent over the same period in 2012 to just 500,000 units.
但中國尚未像日本和韓國那樣，成爲舉足輕重的汽車出口國，特別是面向美國和歐洲市場的出口。今年前八個月，中國的汽車出口量相對於上年同期下降了3%，僅爲50萬輛。
