二胎政策促使中國汽車市場SUV銷量猛增

The Guanghzhou Auto Show, one of China's biggest auto shows, is getting underway. Domestic and foreign players in the auto market are taking part in the event, putting the spotlight on SUVs.

中國最大的車展之一的廣州車展正在進行中。國內外汽車愛好者將參加此次車展，關注運動型多功能車。

Yale Zhang, Automotive Foresight's Managing Director, says many auto brands, such as Ford's Everest and Great Wall Motor Co's Haval H7, have shifted their focus to larger SUVs, especially since China scrapped the one-child policy:

汽車預測市場總監張豫說道，許多汽車品牌，例如福特珠峯和長城汽車的哈弗H7，尤其當中國取消了獨生子女政策，都將重心轉向了更大型的運動型多功能車。

We clearly see a lot of families want to shift from sedans to SUVs because of their safety, comfort and also bigger room. Because now you will have a family, you have a child, you know SUV obviously is better. Even if you have two kids, SUV looks better than a sedan. So this is one of the reason why SUV in China is very popular and still growing.

“我們明白很多家庭的選擇會從轎車轉向運動型多功能汽車，因爲其安全性，舒適性與更大的空間。因爲現在你有家庭，有孩子，你顯然清楚運動型多功能汽車更好。即使你有兩個孩子，運動型多功能汽車看起來比轎車更好。所以這也是爲什麼運動型多功能汽車在中國非常流行，而且需求還在不斷增長的原因。”

In the year through October, sales of SUVs surged 46 percent year-on-year in a broader market that grew 1.5 percent.

今年前10個月, 汽車市場銷量增長了1.5%，運動型多功能汽車銷量較上年同期上漲46%。

According to Automotive Foresight, a market and industry research company, 32 new SUV models are expected to be released in China for 2015.

據市場和行業研究公司汽車前瞻，2015年將在中國發布32款新運動型多功能汽車。

Wu Song, General Manager of Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC Motor), says he expects Chinese brands will hit a big growth in the auto market next year, despite the country's slowest economic growth in decades:

廣汽集團（GAC汽車）總經理武松表示，儘管國家經濟增長十分緩慢，但他預計明年汽車市場上中國的品牌將大增：

Next year the speed of the Chinese auto market's growth will be roughly the same as this year. I estimate it will also be a small increase. But the structure of consumption will undergo a deep change, like it has this year. From January to October the market grew six percent, but for Chinese brands the growth was higher. So I think next year the car market will grow by ten percent or less, I'd estimate at the level of five to six percent,

“明年中國汽車市場的增長速度將與今年大致相同。我估計這也將是小幅增加。但消費結構將與今年一樣發生深刻變化，1月到10月市場增長了6％，但中國的品牌增長更高。因此，我認爲，明年的汽車市場將增長10％或以下，我估計在5-6％階段。”

Meanwhile, China's official stats show that car prices dropped 3.4 percent in the first nine months of this year, outpacing the 1.2 percent decline for passenger vehicles overall.

同時，中國官方數據表示今年前9個月汽車價格下降了3.4％，超過乘用車1.2％的下滑。

HIS Automotive, an interests group for car manufacturers, predicts car sales growth is expected to slip to 11 percent next year.

汽車製造商的利益集團，思邁汽車信息諮詢公司預測明年汽車銷售增幅將下滑11%。

Analysts at Fitch Ratings, an international ratings agency, warns that new SUVs will have a tougher time commanding fat profit margins they may have enjoyed in recent years.

國際評級機構，惠譽國際信用評級有限公司的分析師提醒道新型運動型多功能車獲得近幾年那樣的豐厚利潤將變得更加困難。

Automotive Foresight's Yale Zhang, however, disagrees, saying there is still room for growth in the Chinese market, especially in big cities:

然而汽車預測市場總監張豫並不同意，說道中國市場仍有增長的空間，尤其是在大城市：

The market actually slow down a little bit this year because of the economy and also the stock market crisis. But overall the market has not really been saturated. It probably is in some larger cities, but in the majority of China cities there are plenty of room for the automobiles to grow further,

“由於經濟股市危機，今年市場確實放慢了一點，但市場大體還沒有真正飽和，一些大城市可能是這樣，但中國大多數城市仍有着汽車進一步發展的空間。

Carmakers like Volkswagen have expressed eagerness to expand investment in the Chinese market, with six new locally made models to be launched in the next three to four years.

汽車製造商們，例如大衆都表示渴望在中國市場擴大投資，今後的3到4年將推出6款新型本地製造車。