[科技前沿]蘋果將在中國售出多少部iPhone？

How many iPhones will Apple sell in China?

It's tempting to multiply China's 700 million mobile phone users by a percentage pulled out of a hat, and now that China Unicom has announced its deal with Apple (AAPL), everybody seems to be doing it.

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Result: Published estimates of how many iPhones Apple will sell in China next year that range from a low of 1 million to a high of 14 million. Here are the numbers we've seen:

• UBS analyst Maynard Um: 1 million in fiscal 2010

• Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi: 2.9 million by end of 2011

• Standard & Poor’s Clyde Montevirgen: 4 million in calendar 2010

• Susquehana Financial's Jeffrey Fidicaro: 2 million to 5 million

• Broadpoint AmTech's Brian Marshall: 5 million to 7 million in 2010

• iPhonAsia's Dan Butterfield: 14 million in the first year of sales

Everybody's guessing, of course, since China Unicom hasn't even announced its pricing or its terms. Meanwhile, Susquehana's Fidicaro offers investors this handy formula: For every additional 1 million phones Apple sells next year, you can add 18 to 20 cents to the company's earnings per share.

The Street currently expects Apple to earn $5.84 a share in fiscal 2009 and $6.79 a share in 2010, according to Thomson Financial.

將中國7億手機用戶數乘以一個假設的百分比是件極具誘惑力的事情，既然中國聯通（China Unicom）已經宣佈與蘋果（Apple）的交易，人們似乎都在這麼幹。

其結果是：已公佈的對蘋果iPhone明年在中國銷量的預測從100萬部直到1400萬部不等。以下是一些預測數字：

• 瑞銀集團（UBS）分析師梅納德•烏姆（Maynard Um）：在2010財年售出100萬部

• 桑弗德•伯恩斯坦（Sanford Bernstein）的託尼•薩科納吉（Toni Sacconaghi）：截至2011年底售出290萬部

• 標準普爾（Standard & Poor）的克萊德•蒙特維根（Clyde Montevirgen）：在2010年售出400萬部

• Susquehana Financial的傑佛瑞•斐迪卡諾（Jeffrey Fidicaro）：200萬到500萬部

• Broadpoint AmTech的布萊恩•馬歇爾（Brian Marshall）：在2010年售出500萬到700萬部

• iPhonAsia的丹•巴特菲爾德（Dan Butterfield）：在上市第一年售出1400萬部

當然，所有人都只是猜測，因爲中國聯通甚至尚未宣佈其定價或條件。與此同時，Susquehana的斐迪卡諾向投資者給出了一個方便的公式：蘋果明年每多售出100萬部手機，其每股收益將增加18到20美分。

據湯姆森金融公司（Thomson Financial）稱，華爾街目前預期蘋果2009財年每股收益爲5.84美元，而2010年每股收益爲6.79美元。