安倍的修憲之路將亞洲引向何處
Japan Election, a Landslide for Abe, Could Allow a Bolder Military
安倍的修憲之路將亞洲引向何處？
TOKYO — The Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has governed Japan in one way or another for all but four of the past 61 years, a winning record that reflects the political inertia of a society that values stability and tradition.
東京——在過去61年中，日本現任首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)所在的自民黨(Liberal Democratic Party)以這樣或者那樣的方式統治着日本，只有四年例外。從這個出色的成績可以看出，一個重視穩定和傳統的社會存在怎樣的慣性。
But even by the standards of Japanese politics, Abe’s landslide victory in national elections Sunday was stunning. For the first time, voters gave the Liberal Democrats and their allies more than two-thirds of the seats in Parliament — a supermajority that could allow Abe to realize his long-held ambition of revising the clause in the constitution that renounces war and make Japan a military power capable of global leadership.
但即使是以日本政壇的標準來看，安倍晉三週日在全國大選中獲得的壓倒性勝利也令人驚訝。這是自民黨及其盟友第一次獲得國會三分之二以上的超級多數席位，安倍晉三可能因此實現他的夙願：修改日本憲法中放棄戰爭的條款，讓日本的軍事力量具備全球領導力。
Opinion polls show only lackluster support for Abe’s security agenda or even his program to revitalize the Japanese economy, but the public appeared unwilling to take another chance on the opposition Democratic Party, which stumbled badly in its last, rare stint in power, most notably in its response to the 2011 earthquake and Fukushima nuclear disaster.
民意調查顯示，對於安倍晉三的安全議程，甚至是他振興日本低迷經濟的計劃，民衆的支持其實並不熱烈，但大家似乎就是不願意再給反對黨民主黨(Democratic Party)一個機會。該黨上次好不容易上臺之後，在執政期間表現得十分糟糕，尤其反映在2011年對地震和福島核災害做出的應對上。
The vote for stability at home, though, is likely to provoke unease across Asia, where memories of Japanese militarism in World War II endure and the prospect of a more assertive Japan will add to worries over North Korea’s nuclear program.
然而，日本爲維持國內穩定而投出的選票，很可能會引起亞洲各國的不安。對二戰期間日本軍國主義的記憶，加上日本變得更加強勢的前景，又在朝鮮的核計劃之外，讓他們增添了新的擔憂。
In China, Xinhua, the state news agency, warned in a commentary Monday that the election results “could pose a danger to Japan and regional stability.”
週一，中國官方通訊機構新華社在一篇評論文章中警告，這樣的選舉結果“可能會對日本和地區的穩定構成威脅”。
Experts say that Abe’s governing coalition will not be able to push through constitutional revisions immediately, given that some of the partners have differing opinions on what needs to be amended and how. For example, the Liberal Democrats’ main ally, a small Buddhist party, has said that it opposes changes to the clause that renounces war. At a news conference Monday, Abe said that he intended to press for debate on constitutional revision, though he acknowledged that “it’s not so easy” and added, “I expect the discussion will be deepened.”
專家認爲，安倍晉三的執政聯盟將無法馬上推動憲法的修訂，因爲一些盟友對於需要修改哪些條款、如何修改持有不同的意見。例如，身爲自民黨主要盟友的一個規模較小的佛教黨派稱，他們反對修改不參戰的條款。在本週一的新聞發佈會上，安倍晉三表示，他打算推動關於修憲的辯論，不過他承認“此事不是那麼容易”，並表示，“我預計這場討論會深入進行。”
Abe’s party, in a draft proposal of a revised constitution, has also recommended amendments to the clause on freedom of speech and the press that could limit these rights in cases deemed dangerous to the public interest. Another proposal would expand emergency powers for the prime minister. Any revision would need to be approved by a majority in a public referendum.
在一份修改憲法的擬議草案中，自民黨還建議對言論和新聞自由的條款進行修訂，可能會在被視爲對公共利益有危害的情況下，對這些權利進行限制。另一項建議則會擴大首相的緊急處置權力。任何修訂都需要在公投中獲得多數票才能通過。
But the party’s victory Sunday appears to have less to do with its proposals and more to do with the disarray in the opposition Democratic Party.
不過，該黨在週日獲得的勝利，似乎與它的主張關係不大，而是和反對黨民主黨招致的不滿關係更大。
“The people’s distrust towards the Democratic Party is very high,” said Lully Miura, a lecturer on international politics at Tokyo University. “In 2009, the Democratic Party won the government, but they failed and failed and failed, and even once-supporters of the Democratic Party now distrust them.”
“民衆對民主黨非常不信任，”東京大學(Tokyo University)的國際政治講師三浦瑠麗(Lully Miura)說。“在2009年，民主黨選舉獲勝上臺，但他們接二連三地出問題，就連曾經支持民主黨的人現在都不信任他們了。”
Some analysts said the opposition may have overestimated the public’s worries about Abe’s constitutional agenda at a time when so many remain concerned about Japan’s weak economy. Abe, for his part, spent most of his time on the campaign trail exhorting voters to allow his economic plan — called Abenomics — to continue, and he barely mentioned the constitution.
一些分析人士認爲，反對黨可能高估了公衆對安倍晉三修憲計劃的擔憂，目前仍然有很多人對日本經濟的疲弱感到擔心。安倍晉三自己把競選活動的大部分精力花在勸說選民讓他把“安倍經濟學”繼續推行下去，幾乎沒有怎麼提到憲法的事情。
“Probably the opposition parties pushed too much on the constitutional issue as a political agenda,” said Koji Murata, a professor of international relations at Doshisha University in Kyoto who supports constitutional changes. “But people didn’t care about the constitutional agenda in this upper-house election.”
“在把憲法問題作爲政治議程來批駁的時候，反對黨大概是做過頭了。但在這次上院選舉中，民衆並不關心憲法議程，”京都同志社大學(Doshisha University)國際關係學教授村田晃嗣(Koji Murata)說。他本人支持修憲。
Toshio Ogawa, an opposition candidate from Tokyo who narrowly won a seat, said voters might have had a hard time understanding how his party’s economic plans differed from those of the Liberal Democrats. But, he said, “I knew that Abe’s real goals were security and the constitution. So I thought I had to point it out clearly.”
小川敏夫(Toshio Ogawa)是來自東京的反對黨候選人，勉強贏得了一個國會席位。他表示選民們可能很難理解民主黨與自民黨在經濟計劃上的差別。但他說，“我知道，安倍晉三的真正目標是安全和憲法。所以我想我必須清楚地指出這一點。”
Critics said Abe’s party deliberately played down its agenda on constitutional change. Some also accused the Japanese media, particularly the public broadcaster, NHK, of conspiring to help the governing party and failing to air enough information about the issues at stake in the election.
批評者稱，安倍晉三的政黨故意淡化了其修憲議程。有的還指責日本媒體串謀幫助執政黨，沒有播放足夠多的信息來介紹本次選舉中事關重大的議題，特別是公共廣播公司NHK。
Voters seemed more interested in staying the course and giving Abe’s economic policies more time to yield results than in the debate over rewriting Japan’s pacifist policies.
選民更感興趣的似乎是保持現有軌道，給安倍經濟學提供更多時間來產生效果，而不是關於修改日本和平主義政策的辯論。
“I want them to accelerate their economic policy to increase more jobs and improve social welfare,” said Akemi Machida, 29, who voted for Liberal Democratic candidates at a polling station in Sagamihara, a suburban town southwest of Tokyo. As for the opposition, she said, “There were no particular alternatives besides the LDP, whose policies sounded more convincing.”
“我希望他們給經濟政策提速，從而增加更多的就業機會，提高社會福利，”在東京西南郊區相模原市的一個投票站，29歲的町田明美（Akemi Machida，音）說。她投票支持自民黨候選人。至於反對黨，她認爲，“除了自民黨之外，沒有什麼特別的選擇。他們的政策聽起來更具說服力。”
Outside Japan, Abe’s new supermajority is likely to further unsettle an increasingly tense region. South Korea defied China last week by announcing that it would deploy an advanced U.S. missile defense system to protect itself against North Korea.
在日本之外，安倍晉三這次獲得的超級多數席位可能進一步加劇該地區的緊張局勢。韓國上週不顧中國的反對，宣佈將會部署一種先進的美國導彈防禦系統，以保護自己免受朝鮮攻擊。
“The Chinese will fear that Abe will find a way to work the system to his advantage,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, a senior adviser for Asia and a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. At a regular news briefing Monday, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Lu Kang, said that China and other Asian countries were “concerned about political moves in Japan” because of its past military action in the region.
“中國必然會擔心安倍晉三找到一種方式，讓這套系統按照有利於他的方式發揮效用，”華盛頓國際戰略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的亞洲問題高級顧問、中國問題專家葛來儀(Bonnie S. Glaser)說。外交部發言人陸慷在週一的例行記者會上表示，由於日本過去在該地區採取的軍事行動，中國和其他亞洲國家“對日本國內現在的一些政治動向有關切”。
In South Korea, an editorial in Munhwa Ilbo, a right-leaning newspaper, said the election results “opened the door for a Japan that can go to war,” though it added that a rearmed country “will also help deter North Korea’s nuclear threat and check the rising military power of China.”
韓國右傾刊物《文化日報》(Munhwa Ilbo)發表社論稱，這樣的選舉結果“爲日本可以發動戰爭打開了大門”，不過文中還寫道，日本的重新武裝“也將有助於遏制朝鮮的核威脅，牽制中國日益崛起的軍事力量”。
