美中貿易戰之際，日相安倍晉三將初次訪華

The U.S.-China trade war is helping push Beijing and Tokyo closer. How close will become clearer later this week, when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe makes his first visit to China since taking office in 2012.

Analysts say the three-day trip is unlikely to resolve historic territorial disputes between the two sides, but it will provide Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping a rare opportunity to warm ties and try to advance key policy agendas.

Abe arrives Thursday in Beijing accompanied by an entourage of more than 500 business leaders who, with their Chinese counterparts, will attend an investment forum focusing on collaboration in third countries.

As relations between Beijing and Washington worsen, China is looking to build closer ties with Abe, a leader who has visited the United States frequently and has sought to build a friendly relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump.

“For Abe, this is an opportunity that Trump has created for him that suits Japan's foreign diplomacy interests,” said Ho Szu-shen, Japanese language and culture professor at Taiwan's Fu-Jen Catholic University. “If Japanese companies can find a way to cooperate on belt and road projects that could help diminish international criticisms and concerns of countries along the belt about debt trap diplomacy.”

In recent weeks, a handful of countries have canceled or scaled back billions of dollars in belt and road projects over concerns about debt. China denies it is trying to create debt traps and take advantage of developing countries.

Japan's participation in projects with China could help ease those fears. During Abe's visit, dozens of investment announcements are expected and some are looking to see whether the two will collaborate in places such as Thailand.

Japan has made clear it supports the idea of building infrastructure to help boost economies around the globe, but it also has stressed that investments it participates in be transparent, economically viable and fiscally sustainable for the host country.

A Japanese government source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that while there will be announcements during the visit by private companies, it is “not going to be a big deal like when Mr. Trump came to Beijing.”

When Trump visited China last November, the two announced $250 billion in trade deals.

Trump is entangled in trade disputes with both Japan and China and criticized the two countries trade practices and deficits with the United States.

As far as trade disputes go, Japan is in a better position than Beijing. Late last month, Tokyo and Washington agreed to shelve auto tariffs and begin negotiations on a free trade agreement. China and the United States remain deeply divided.

At the same time, however, China has been working hard to push a free trade agreement of its own for the region, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and is likely to use the meeting to buoy support for that agreement and the goal to finish the deal by the end of this year.

A Japanese government source said that reaching an agreement is desirable, “but at the same time we can't compromise too much on standards.” He also added that there are differing views among participants of RCEP as well, which includes six Asian countries and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

China is Japan's biggest trading partner and more than 30,000 Japanese companies have operations in the country. Last year, Japanese investments grew for the first time since 2012 when a territorial dispute over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea and frictions sent relations into a nosedive. Ties were so tense there were concerns the two countries might enter into a military conflict, which contributed to an exodus of Japanese businesses.

That dispute remains unresolved, but Japanese investment is picking up again, growing by 5.1 percent last year. Abe's visit comes as the two countries mark the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese Peace and Friendship Treaty, and with that, both are looking to open a new page in relations.美國和中國之間的貿易戰正在拉近中國和日本的關係。究竟會近到何種程度，這將在日本首相安倍晉三本週晚些時候訪華時更爲清晰。這是安倍自2012年當選首相後首次訪華。

分析人士表示這次爲期三天的訪問並不太可能解決中日兩國間歷史上的領土爭端，但可以爲安倍首相和中國領導人習近平提供一個改善關係並努力推動關鍵政策議題的難得機會。

安倍將於週四抵達北京，隨行的有超過500名商界領袖。他們將與中國商界領袖門一起參加一個投資論壇，着重討論在第三國展開合作的有關事宜。

隨着北京和華盛頓的關係惡化，中國正尋求與安倍建立更緊密的聯繫。安倍經常訪問美國，並試圖與美國總統特朗普建立友善關係。

臺灣鋪仁大學日本語言和文化教授何思慎說：“對於安倍來說，這次機會是特朗普爲其創造出來的，這也符合日本的外交利益。如果日本公司能找到與中國一帶一路項目合作的途徑，將有助於打消來自國際上的批評以及一帶一路沿線國家對於債務陷阱的憂慮。”

最近幾周，一些國家出於對債務的擔憂，取消或縮減了投資數十億美元的一帶一路項目。中國否認正試圖給發展中國家製造債務陷阱並從中牟利。

如果日本參與這些項目，這將有利於緩解上述擔憂。安倍本次訪華期間，兩國預計將宣佈一系列投資計劃。一些觀察人士正觀望兩國會不會在如泰國等地展開合作。

日本曾清楚地表明支持全球範圍內建造基礎設施，以此促進經濟發展。日本也聲明其參與的項目必須公開透明，且對接受國來說在經濟上可行，在財政方面具有可持續性。

日本政府一名不願意透露姓名的消息人士表示，此次訪問期間會有一些私企宣佈一些消息，但“並不會像當年特朗普先生訪華時那樣隆重。”

特朗普去年訪問中國時，美中兩國宣佈了價值2500億美元的貿易協定。

特朗普政府目前與中日兩國的都有貿易糾紛，他還批評了兩國的貿易做法以及給美國帶來的貿易逆差。

日本在對美貿易問題上所處的位置要優於中國。上個月晚些時候，日本和美國同意擱置汽車關稅，並開始就一項自由貿易協定進行談判。而美中之間依舊存在重大分歧。

不過與此同時，中國一直在努力在區域內推動自己的自由貿易協定，即《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》。中國很可能會利用安倍來訪尋求對該協定的支持，並希望在年底前達成協定。

日本政府的一個消息來源表示有意願達成協議，但他補充說“我們不能在標準問題上過多妥協。”他還表示，中國這份協定的各參與國也持不同觀點。這些國家包括了六個亞洲國家和東南亞國家聯盟的成員國。

中國是日本的最大貿易伙伴，超過30000家日本企業在中國運營。日本在華投資自2012年以來首次出現增長。2012年，中日因東海無人居住島嶼發生領土爭端和摩擦，導致雙邊關係急轉直下，緊張到讓人們擔心兩國可能發生軍事衝突，這導致日本企業大規模外流。

儘管爭端仍未解決，但日本對華投資再次增長，去年上漲了5.1%。安倍此次訪華正值《中日和平友好條約》簽署40週年之際。兩國也尋在在外交關係上開啓新篇章。