安倍晉三宣佈將提前選舉

Shinzo Abe officially announced plans to dissolve Japan’s parliament on Friday and delay a second increase in consumption taxes by 18 months to April 2017.

日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)已正式宣佈計劃，將在週五解散日本議會，並將把第二輪上調銷售稅計劃向後推遲18個月，至2017年4月。

The prime minister said he had reached the decision “to ensure that Abenomics will succeed in overcoming deflation and will continue to drive economic growth”.

安倍晉三表示，他做出這一決定是爲了“確保安倍經濟學將在遏制通縮方面取得成功並繼續推動經濟增長”。

“We need to turn to the public to seek their opinion on this grave, grave decision,” he added.

他補充稱：“我們需要就這個非常重大的問題向公衆徵求意見。”

In a 15-minute speech that already sounded like an election pitch, Mr Abe pointed to an increase in wages and increased employment as the fruits of Abenomics. However, he admitted: “Unfortunately, we’re not yet back on a growth trajectory.”

在聽上去像是一次選舉宣傳的15分鐘演講中，安倍晉三將薪資上漲和就業擴大描述爲安倍經濟學的成果。然而，他承認：“不幸的是，我們尚未回到增長軌道上去。”

Amid concerns about Japan’s mounting debt, Mr Abe also declared that there would be no further delay to the sales tax rise.

在人們對日本債務日益增加感到擔憂之際，安倍晉三還宣佈，不會再次推遲上調消費稅計劃。

“We will achieve both economic revival and fiscal reconstruction,” Mr Abe said.

安倍晉三表示：“我們將實現經濟復甦和財政重建雙重目標。”

The snap election will take place on December 14, giving parties just 26 days to prepare to go to the polls.

選舉將在12月14日進行，日本各黨派將僅有26天的時間爲選舉做準備。

Early news of the poll sent the already weakening Japanese currency lower. The yen fell 0.2 per cent against the dollar in the 20 minutes following a report by the domestic broadcaster that Mr Abe would announce the election on Tuesday evening.

之前有關提前選舉的消息推低了已在貶值的日元匯率。日本公共廣播電視臺NHK之前報道稱，預計安倍晉三將在週二晚間宣佈提前選舉。在這篇報道發表後的20分鐘內，日元兌美元匯率下跌0.2%。

Talk emerged last week that the Japanese leader may seek a popular mandate to push back the second consumption tax rise. The first, effective in April, was blamed for a sharp fall in Japan’s second-quarter output.

上週有傳言稱，安倍晉三正尋求民衆對推遲第二輪上調消費稅計劃的支持。第一次上調消費稅是在今年4月施行的，人們批評該計劃導致日本第二季度產出大幅下滑。

On its own, “the decision not to hike means the economy should be stronger over the next couple of years than would otherwise be the case”, according to Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

資本經濟(Capital Economics)首席亞洲經濟學家馬克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示，就政策本身而言，“不上調消費稅的決定意味着，與上調消費稅相比，未來幾年不上調應會令日本經濟更爲強勁。”

“That in turn should help the Bank of Japan by increasing price pressures. But we still expect inflation to fall short of the 2 per cent target, so more monetary easing is still likely to be required.”

“通過加大價格壓力，應會對日本央行(Bank of Japan)有所幫助。但我們仍預期，通脹率將低於2%的目標，因此仍可能需要更多貨幣寬鬆政策。”

Conversely, as analysts at Credit Suisse write in a research note, there is a risk that Mr Abe’s “popularity declines to levels that force the return of pre-Abe policies”.

相反，正如瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析師在一份研究報告中所寫的那樣，這種觀點的主要風險在於安倍晉三的“受歡迎程度下滑，迫使安倍恢復其上臺之前的政策。”