彷徨中的俄羅斯反對派

There were still thick crusts of dirty snow piled up on the edges of the pavement outside Krasnopresnenskaya, a Metro station in central Moscow, on Tuesday. Beside this reminder of a long winter stood four young men and women holding bright green balloons. “Spring is coming!” said one of them, while handing out leaflets to passers-by.

2015年2月24日，星期二。莫斯科市中心克拉斯諾普列斯年斯卡婭地鐵站外，人行道兩邊仍堆着骯髒的厚厚積雪。凍實的雪堆提醒着人們這是個漫長的冬天。積雪旁站着四名年輕男女，他們手裏拿着亮綠色的氣球。其中一人邊向路人派發傳單，邊說道：“春天來了！”

The four, along with similar groups of activists elsewhere, are trying to mobilise their compatriots to come out in Moscow, and a handful of other Russian cities, on Sunday to protest against President Vladimir Putin in what they are calling an “anti-crisis march”.

這四名年輕人，連同俄羅斯各地類似的活動人士羣體，正努力動員他們的同胞本週日現身莫斯科及俄羅斯其他幾個城市，參加抗議總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)的遊行，他們稱之爲“反危機遊行”。

“After years of siphoning off the oil revenues, the current regime has led the country to a standstill and into complete bankruptcy,” the leaflets say. “Putin and his government cannot lift the country out of crisis and must leave.”

傳單上寫道：“當前政權經過多年對石油收入的榨取，已將這個國家帶入停滯，走向徹底破產。普京和他的政府不能帶領這個國家走出危機，他們必須下臺。”

A few passersby took the leaflets; most ignored them. Three years after 100,000 took part in opposition rallies across Russia, the movement is splintered: some leaders are jailed, others are in exile while several have switched sides.

有幾個路人接過傳單，但大多數人無視他們的存在。三年前，俄羅斯全國有10萬人參加了各地的反對集會，而今這場運動已支離破碎，領導者中有的被監禁，有的已倒戈，有的流亡在外。

With the economy heading into recession, conventional wisdom would suggest that Mr Putin — whose support ratings were catapulted to over 80 per cent by his annexation of Crimea a year ago and have stayed at record highs ever since — might face political trouble.

一年前普京吞併克里米亞時，他的支持率一舉超越80%，且此後一直停留在歷史高位。但隨着俄羅斯經濟步入衰退，人們普遍認爲普京可能會面臨政治困境。

That was the thinking behind the sanctions with which the west has been trying to punish the Russian leader for his Crimea grab. The theory goes that if the oligarchs, whom Mr Putin has kept loyal, were threatened with financial losses, they would start leaning on him to change course. Equally if the public started feeling economic pain, it would also turn against the president.

這正是西方制裁俄羅斯背後的邏輯。西方一直試圖借制裁來懲罰這位俄羅斯領導人霸佔克里米亞的行爲。理論上，如果俄羅斯那些對普京保持忠誠的寡頭們面臨經濟損失的威脅，他們就會開始逼迫普京改變道路。同樣，如果俄羅斯人民開始感到經濟陣痛，也會掉頭反對總統。

But the Russian leader has overturned such assumptions. A constant drumbeat of propaganda has portrayed the crisis as a fight for Russia’s survival — and the vast majority of the population has rallied around Mr Putin.

但這位俄羅斯領導人推翻了上述假設。連續不斷的宣傳攻勢將這場危機描繪成一場俄羅斯的生存之戰，讓絕大多數俄羅斯人團結到了普京身邊。

The economic pain has very clearly set in, although only partly as a result of the sanctions. More significant has been the plummeting price of oil, which together with gas accounts for three-quarters of Russia’s exports and more than half of its budget revenues.

經濟陣痛已經很明顯地出現了，不過僅有部分是制裁造成的。更直接的原因還是油價暴跌，石油與天然氣在俄羅斯出口額裏佔四分之三，在其財政預算收入中佔比超過一半。

Following the collapse of the rouble by more than 40 per cent against the dollar over the past year, consumer prices are soaring, a problem made worse by the government’s decision in August to ban a wide range of food products from Polish apples to French cheese in retaliation against western sanctions.

過去一年盧布對美元暴跌40%以上，盧布崩盤後消費價格飛漲，政府的一項決策更是火上澆油——去年8月，俄羅斯政府爲報復西方制裁，禁止進口多種食品，從波蘭的蘋果到法國的奶酪全都包含在內。

Economic shocks

經濟衝擊

The authorities are forcing everyone to tighten their belts, freezing public sector salaries and laying off doctors and nurses, while private companies are cutting production and workers.

俄羅斯當局正迫使每個人勒緊褲腰帶。公共部門人員薪水凍結，醫生和護士被辭退，私營企業則在削減產量和裁員。

The government has said inflation might peak around 15 per cent this summer, and the economy is likely to contract by about 5 per cent. “It’s the biggest crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union,” says Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister.

俄羅斯政府表示，通脹可能在今年夏天見頂，峯值在15%左右，國內經濟很可能收縮約5%。俄羅斯前能源部副部長弗拉基米爾·米洛夫(Vladimir Milov)說：“這是自蘇聯解體以來最大的危機。”

Opposition activists hope to tap into the anger they believe economic hardship will eventually trigger.

反對派活動人士相信經濟困難最終將引發人民的憤怒，他們希望能利用這股情緒。

Boris Nemtsov, a veteran liberal opposition politician who briefly served as deputy prime minister under Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s, says stagnant wages and soaring inflation topped the agenda when he met with residents of Yaroslavl, a town northeast of Moscow, last week. “They believed that the embargo on imported foods is America’s fault, and they were surprised when I told them no, that was not Obama, it was Putin,” he says. “This is what we need to make people aware of: the crisis, that’s Putin.”

資深的自由主義反對派政治人士、曾在20世紀90年代鮑里斯•葉利欽(Boris Yeltsin)執政時期短暫地擔任過副總理的鮑里斯•涅姆佐夫(Boris Nemtsov)表示，他在上週會見了莫斯科東北雅羅斯拉夫爾鎮的居民，那裏人們最關注的問題是工資停滯和通脹飆升。他說：“他們認爲進口食品禁運是美國的錯，當我告訴他們這不是奧巴馬的錯，而是普京的錯時，他們很驚訝。這就是我們需要讓人民意識到的，這場危機的根源是普京。”

But nobody is under any illusions that grumbling over Russia’s economic woes will bring about swift political change.

但沒人幻想俄羅斯經濟困境引發的抱怨會帶來迅速的政治變革。

“It hasn’t got to the point yet where economic hardship can have an impact on mass opinion,” says Dmitry Gudkov, an opposition member of parliament.

反對派國會議員德米特里•古德科夫(Dmitry Gudkov)說：“經濟還沒有困難到會影響大衆輿論的地步。”

According to the independent Centre for Social and Labour Rights in Moscow, the number of protests over lay-offs and wages has risen sharply in the past year. But observers believe these will remain limited to towns overly dependent on single employers, and this local isolation will allow the government to deal with it. Economists in Moscow believe that only a further slide in the oil price below $50 and continued sanctions could plunge Russia into a catastrophic financial crisis next year which would significantly alter the situation.

根據莫斯科獨立機構“社會和勞動權益中心”(Centre for Social and Labour Rights)的資料，過去一年反對裁員減薪的抗議活動急速增加。但觀察人士認爲，這些抗議將僅限於那些過度依賴單一僱主的城鎮，由於它們在位置上都較爲孤立，政府有能力解決它們。莫斯科的經濟學家們認爲，只有當油價在50美元下方進一步下滑，同時制裁持續，俄羅斯纔有可能在明年陷入災難性的金融危機，而這會造成局面重大改變。

Sunday’s rally is not seen as a test for how Mr Putin’s opponents can exploit the economic crisis, but rather a tiny first step for an opposition reduced to a shadow of its former self. In 2011 and 2012, members of the Moscow middle class mounted a real challenge to Mr Putin when they rallied around Alexei Navalny, the lawyer and anti-corruption blogger.

沒有人認爲週日的集會能考驗普京的反對者利用這場經濟危機的能力，而是將之視與之前相比力量已十分微弱的反對派邁出的微小第一步。在2011年和2012年，莫斯科的中產階層曾集結在律師、反腐敗博主阿列克謝•納瓦爾尼(Alexei Navalny)身邊，對普京發起了真正的挑戰。

But the movement has since fallen apart. “It is a problem that many activists are abroad, in prison or under house arrest. It weakens the movement,” says Pavel Elizarov, an opposition leader who sought political asylum in Lisbon after the government crushed the 2012 protests. “But for sure it’s better to live abroad than to be in prison.”

但這場運動後來分崩離析。反對派領導人帕維爾•葉利扎羅夫(Pavel Elizarov)說：“許多活動人士要麼身處國外，要麼被囚禁或軟禁，這是個問題。這削弱了抗議運動。不過住在國外肯定要比進監獄強。”2012年的抗議活動遭到政府鎮壓後，葉利扎羅夫在里斯本尋求政治庇護。

Those left behind are trying to rebuild. “Three years ago, we were an opposition. Now we are no more than dissidents,” says Mr Nemtsov. “The task is to organise a real opposition again.”

留下的人正試圖恢復抗議活動。涅姆佐夫說：“三年前我們是反對派，現在我們只不過是異見分子。當前任務是再次組織起一支真正的反對派。”

Group therapy

團體治療

Organisers say a turnout of 20,000 on Sunday — less than one-fifth of the crowds at the peak of the 2011 protests — would be a “very decent success”.

組織者們表示，週日集會的出席者如能達到2萬人，將是一次“非常像樣的成功”。這一人數還不足2011年抗議活動高峯期人數的五分之一。

Nina Zavrieva, a 28-year-old tech entrepreneur, says she will attend, if only to reassure herself that there are still like-minded people in Moscow. “In a way it’s like group therapy,” she says.

28歲的高科技創業者尼娜•扎夫裏耶娃(Nina Zavrieva)表示，她會參加這場集會，哪怕只是爲了安慰自己莫斯科還有與自己志同道合的人。她說：“某種意義上，這像一場團體治療。”

The opposition is trying to create a platform for a long-term movement.

反對派正努力爲一場長期運動創造一個平臺。

“The regime has generated a lot of fear. The usual pictures from protests in Russia have been dark ones, with police officers dressed like astronauts and beating people,” says Leonid Volkov, one of the rally organisers and a member of Mr Navalny’s Progress party. “We have to return peaceful rallies to politics as a regular tool.”

納瓦爾尼領導的進步黨(Progress party)黨員、集會組織者之一列昂尼德•沃爾科夫(Leonid Volkov)說：“這個政權已經造成了大量恐懼。從有關抗議的尋常照片就可看出，俄羅斯的抗議活動場面黑暗，警察們穿得像宇航員一樣毆打羣衆。我們必須迴歸和平的政治集會，將此作爲常規工具。”

The odds are stacked against them. Mr Navalny himself was jailed for 15 days last week for handing out leaflets advertising Sunday’s protest. He will not be released until March 4, robbing the rally of its main draw.

重重困難擺在他們面前。納瓦爾尼本人在上週因派發傳單宣傳週日這場抗議集會，被判監禁15日，直到3月4日才能釋放，令這場集會喪失了主心骨。

Last month, police raided both the offices of Mr Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation and the homes of leading staff. “I think they are going to launch some criminal case against us, accusing us of having misused the donations because we paid our staff a salary,” says Roman Rubanov, one of Mr Navalny’s key associates at the foundation.

上個月，警方搜查了納瓦爾尼的反腐基金會(Anti-Corruption Foundation)辦公室，以及主要職員的家。納瓦爾尼在基金會裏的重要夥伴羅曼•魯巴諾夫(Roman Rubanov)說：“我想他們會對我們發起一些刑事訴訟，指控我們濫用捐款，因爲我們向員工支付薪水。”

Even if the opposition can get back on its feet, it is faced with a huge challenge: to broaden its appeal beyond the Moscow middle class and find allies.

即使反對派能重新站起來，還要面臨一個巨大挑戰：他們要將自己的影響力擴大到莫斯科中產階層以外，同時還要尋找盟友。

“The opposition movement has to understand why 85 per cent [of the people] are still in favour of the ruling party,” says Ms Zavrieva. “Once they understand the problems of the masses, and manage to work with a greater group of people — not just the 5-10 per cent — then something big is going to happen. At this point the opposition is a little bit in a world of its own.”

扎夫裏耶娃說：“反對派運動必須明白，爲什麼85%（的人民）仍支持執政黨。一旦他們明白了羣衆的問題所在，並設法與更廣大的人羣合作，而不是僅僅5%到10%的人，就將會有大事發生。在這一方面，反對派有點活在自己的世界裏。”

Mr Gudkov exemplifies this disconnect. He half dismisses the need to engage the wider population. “If, roughly speaking, 60 per cent of the population supports Putin, only 5 per cent are active supporters. The other 55 per cent are zombified TV watchers who will never decide any sort of politics,” he argues. “You show them a different picture [on the TV] tomorrow, and they’ll think differently.”

古德科夫充分體現了這種脫節。他部分否定了爭取更廣泛羣衆的必要。他稱：“粗略地講，如果有60%的人支持普京，那麼只有5%的人是積極的支持者，其他55%的人都是‘殭屍’電視觀衆，他們永遠不會決定任何政治問題。你明天（在電視上）向他們展示不同的畫面，他們就會產生不同的想法。”

Making new allies

結交新盟友

Not everyone is as cynical. Mr Navalny’s campaigners realise that while his focus on social media allowed him to build support despite being barred from state television, it also prevented him from reaching Russians over a certain age and outside the capital who do not use those media. To address that, Mr Rubanov and his colleagues are working on what they call Russia’s first political tabloid, an eight-page, monthly pamphlet to publish the dirt Mr Navalny’s anti-corruption campaign digs up about the men and women who run the country.

不是每個人都這麼憤世嫉俗。納瓦爾尼陣營的活動家們認識到，儘管在國家電視臺的封殺下，納瓦爾尼依然靠專攻社交媒體獲得了支持，然而這也阻止了他影響特定年齡層次以外、以及首都外面那些不使用社交媒體的俄羅斯人。爲解決這一問題，魯巴諾夫和他的同事們正忙於出版他們所稱的俄羅斯第一份政治小報。這是一份8個版面的月刊，上面將刊載納瓦爾尼的反腐運動挖出來的、關於執掌這個國家的男人和女人們的醜聞。

Mr Navalny has also started to co-operate with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oligarch who moved to Switzerland when Mr Putin released him from prison in late 2013 after 10 years behind bars, and who has since proposed himself as an alternative president.

納瓦爾尼還開始與前寡頭米哈伊爾•霍多爾科夫斯基(Mikhail Khodorkovsky)合作。2013年底，普京釋放了身陷囹圄10年的霍多爾科夫斯基。獲釋後他搬到瑞士，而且自此開始表示欲競選總統。

The opposition will eventually face the question of how a change of power can be brought about. Opposition politicians reject the possibility of a revolution, but some opponents of Mr Putin hope for a palace coup, while others ponder about how the president could be persuaded to step down.

反對派最終將面臨一個問題：權力的更迭該怎樣實現。反對派政治人士拒絕革命的可能性，但普京的一些反對者期待發生宮廷政變，還有人在思考如何說服總統主動下臺。

Mr Gudkov claims that Alexei Kudrin, a widely respected former economic adviser to Mr Putin, has discussed with officials in western governments the idea that the Russian leader and some members of his closest circle could be offered retirement abroad with a promise to be left alone — an arrangement dismissed as impossible by western diplomats in Moscow.

古德科夫稱普京的前經濟顧問、廣受尊敬的阿列克謝•庫德林(Alexei Kudrin)與西方政府官員討論過一個想法：允許普京和他核心圈子的部分成員退隱海外，並承諾不打擾他們。莫斯科的西方外交官認爲這一安排不可能實現，不予考慮。

Other politicians are discussing the matter in more realistic terms. “Putin’s rating will not stay at above 80 per cent forever. It will start coming down, very gradually,” says Mr Nemtsov. “And once it does, the fear will diminish, too, and at some point some big business will start supporting and financing us.”

其他政客正從更現實的層面討論此事。涅姆佐夫說：“普京的支持率不會永遠停留在80%以上，它將非常緩慢地開始下降。而一旦他的支持率下降，人民的恐懼就將減少，然後在某一時刻，一些大公司將開始支持和資助我們。”

Such scenarios are long in the future. They anticipate Mr Putin serving another six-year term after the present one ends in 2018. At that point the constitution, which allows no more than two consecutive presidential terms, would force him to step aside. Says Mr Nemtsov: “We are talking about 2024.”

這是他們對很久以後的設想。他們預計普京將在2018年當前任期結束後，再連任下一個6年任期。然後憲法會迫使他下臺，因爲憲法規定總統連任不得超過兩屆。涅姆佐夫說：“我們討論的是2024年的事。”