內部分歧重重,美貿易代表團要如何和中國談判?

WASHingTON — Top Trump administration officials are arriving in China this week armed with tough talk about Beijing’s need to change its trade practices. But within the United States delegation there is little consensus about what concessions America should try to extract — or the best approach to getting the Chinese to agree.

華盛頓——本週抵達中國的特朗普政府高層官員表達了北京需改變貿易做法的強硬態度。但是對於美國應該試圖獲取什麼樣的讓步，或者說怎樣做才能使中國就範，代表團內部沒有多少共識。

Instead of a single point person with a clear set of demands, the White House is sending six trade and economic officials with differing ideas on how to approach China and who are deeply divided over the desirability of a trade war. Some advocate goals that do not align with what the American business community wants or what China is prepared to offer, raising questions about how productive a dialogue will be, and whether talks can prevent the world’s two largest economies from tipping into a deeper conflict.

白宮沒有派出一位具有特定觀點和一系列明確要求的人，而是派出六名貿易與經濟官員，在如何處理中國問題方面，他們的觀點各不相同，在貿易戰是否可取這個問題上也有很大分歧。一些人提倡的目標與美國企業界想要達成的目標或中國準備提供的東西並不一致，這令人們懷疑對話將產生多大成效，以及談判能否阻止全球兩個最大經濟體陷入更深層次的衝突。

What unites the group is a view that China’s trade practices are unacceptable and that Washington will now call the shots.

代表團成員都能認同的是：中國的貿易行爲是不可接受的，華盛頓現在要掌握主動。

“The discussions will take place in Beijing, the decisions will take place in Washington,” said Peter Navarro, a top trade adviser and longtime China critic who is among those traveling to Beijing.

“討論會在北京進行，而決定將在華盛頓做出，”高級貿易顧問，長期批評中國的彼得·納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)說，他是前往北京的代表之一。

China experts have said the trip is very likely to be more of a listening session, in which administration officials will wait to hear what the Chinese will offer. But without agreement or a clear list of goals from the American side, the Chinese may try to mollify officials by meeting only the most modest of their trade demands. That could include agreeing to buy additional American products to lower the trade surplus with the United States, reviving old economic dialogues between the countries, or cracking open some domestic markets to foreign competition — but only those where Chinese companies are already securely dominant.

中國問題專家表示，此次出訪很可能更傾向於傾聽，政府官員會讓中方來說它能夠提供什麼。但是，如果沒有協議或美方明確的目標清單，中國人可能會試圖通過滿足最溫和的貿易要求來安撫這些官員。其中可能包括同意購買額外的美國產品，以降低對美國的貿易順差；恢復兩國之間舊有的經濟對話；或是迅速開放一些國內市場，迎接外國競爭——但只開放那些中國企業已經穩固佔據主導地位的市場。

In general, China appears set to take a hard line. Chinese officials said they would not agree to a $100 billion reduction in the trade deficit that the Trump administration has demanded. And they do not plan to engage on ambitious United States demands to curb an industrial plan known as Made in China 2025.

總的來說，中國似乎會採取強硬立場。中國官員表示，他們不會同意特朗普政府要求的貿易赤字減少1000億美元。而美國爲遏制名爲《中國製造2025》的工業計劃而提出的大範圍要求，他們也不打算討論。

The delegation also includes Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, who, like Mr. Navarro, embraces a more combative approach to dealing with China than other advisers on the trip. Mr. Navarro and Mr. Lighthizer have been focused on China’s trade practices for decades, and insist the country must make more dramatic changes to even the playing field for American companies. They also appear willing to follow through with the tariffs President Trump has threatened, despite the pain it could inflict on many American businesses and workers, if they view it as necessary to increase their leverage with the Chinese.

代表團中還包括美國貿易代表羅伯特·萊特希澤(Robert Lighthizer)，他和納瓦羅一樣，對中國採取比其他代表團顧問更好鬥的立場。幾十年來，納瓦羅和萊特希澤一直關注中國的貿易做法，並且堅持認爲中國必須做出更大改變，爲美國公司提供公平的競爭環境。他們似乎也願意執行特朗普總統所威脅的關稅，如果他們認定關稅是對中國人加壓的必要手段，那麼就算給許多美國企業和工人帶來痛苦也在所不惜。

Other members of the delegation, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow, who heads the National Economic Council, appear more inclined to strike deals that would accomplish the president’s goal of reducing the gap between what America imports from China and what it sells to the country, and thus head off the risk of an escalating trade war. Also going on the trip are Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, who has previously seemed receptive to striking deals; Everett Eissenstat, an experienced trade adviser; and Terry Branstad, the United States ambassador to China.

代表團的其他成員還包括財政部長史蒂文·努欽(Steven Mnuchin)和國家經濟委員會(National Economic Council)主席拉里·庫德洛(Larry Kudlow)，他們似乎更傾向於達成協議，實現總統的目標——縮小美中進出口貿易的差距，從而避免貿易戰的升級。代表團中還有商務部長威爾伯·羅斯(Wilbur Ross)，此前他似乎更傾向於達成協議；此外還有經驗豐富的貿易顧問埃弗雷特·伊森史塔(Everett Eissenstat)；以及美國駐華大使特里·布蘭斯塔德(Terry Branstad)。

Yukon Huang, a China scholar at the Carnegie Institute, called the group an “ideologically hybrid team” with competing views about what is really plaguing the U.S.-China relationship.

卡內基研究院(Carnegie Institute)的中國問題學者黃育川(Yukon Huang)說這羣人是一個“意識形態混雜的團隊”，對於困擾美中關係的真正問題有着截然不同的觀點。

“It’s a mixture between two camps: one focused on trade issues, one focused on technology wars,” Mr. Huang said. “The reason it is such, and we don’t have a game plan, is the issues aren’t well understood.”

“這是兩個陣營的混合體：一個關注貿易問題，一個關注技術戰爭，”黃育川說。“之所以會這樣，並且缺乏整體的策略，是因爲問題沒有得到很好的理解。”

Among the concerns are a range of practices, including barriers to entry, subsidies and regulations that pressure American companies to hand over sensitive trade secrets, which China uses to make national champions of its homegrown firms. These tactics have enabled the Chinese to dominate global industries like steel, aluminum and solar panels, and American trade advisers say they are currently tipping the playing field for industries of the future, including semiconductors, robotics, cloud computing, electric vehicles and biotechnology.

他們關切的事項包括中國的一系列做法，比如設置准入門檻；提供補貼；制訂規章，迫使美國企業交出敏感的商業機密，中國再利用這些機密打造本土領軍企業。這些策略幫助中國主導了鋼鐵、鋁和太陽能電池板等全球性產業。美國的貿易顧問們表示，他們目前正在顛覆半導體、機器人、雲計算、電動汽車和生物技術等未來產業的競爭環境。

Speaking at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington on Tuesday, Mr. Lighthizer said that the United States had nearly a third of the world’s high-tech business, followed by China, and that China’s trade practices were imperiling the economic future of the United States.

萊特希澤週二在華盛頓的美國商會(U.S. Chamber of Commerce)發表講話時表示，美國擁有全球近三分之一的高科技企業，中國名列第二，中國的貿易行爲正在危及美國的經濟未來。

“I’m always hoping but not always hopeful,” Mr. Lighthizer said about the prospect of success from the talks.

“我一直在希望，但並不總是滿懷希望，”萊特希澤在談到談判是否會取得成功時表示。

Many American industry leaders support Mr. Lighthizer’s efforts to expand access to Chinese sectors that are restricted to American companies and protect American intellectual property from theft and coercion — longstanding complaints of American business leaders about China’s tactics. But they are wary of the administration’s approach to resolving longstanding problems.

美國的很多行業領袖都支持萊特希澤在擴大中國行業准入方面的努力（那些行業原本限制美國企業進入），以及保護美國的知識產權免受盜竊和脅迫。長期以來，美國的商界領袖一直在抱怨中國的這些策略。但他們對特朗普政府解決這些老問題的方式感到擔憂。

Some business leaders fear that the Trump administration may simply accept Chinese offers to lower the trade surplus by buying more American goods and open up segments of the economy that are already mature, like financial services, electronic payments or the auto sector. On the other hand, they worry about the economic damage from a trade war if the anti-China wing of the delegation wins the internal debate and follows through with its threats.

一些商界領袖擔心，特朗普政府可能會接受中國的提議，那就是，通過購買更多的美國商品減少貿易順差，開放已經成熟的經濟領域，比如金融服務、電子支付或汽車行業。另一方面，他們擔心，如果代表團中的反華勢力贏得了內部辯論，將威脅付諸實施，那麼會導致貿易戰，造成經濟損失。

Thomas J. Donohue, the president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said Tuesday that there were “serious, growing and legitimate challenges” about Chinese practices, but he also cautioned against the effect of a tit-for-tat tariff war.

美國商會會長托馬斯·J·多諾霍(Thomas J. Donohue)週二表示，對於中國的做法存在“嚴重的、日益增強的、合情合理的挑戰”，但他也警告，針鋒相對的關稅戰會帶來不利後果。

“We are deeply concerned that the proposed tariffs list and escalating tariff threats from the administration will not effectively advance our shared goal of changing these harmful Chinese practices,” he said.

“我們深感關切的是，政府提出的關稅清單和不斷升級的關稅威脅，無法有效推進我們改變中國這些有害做法的共同目標，”他說。

Analysts continue to warn of potential risks to economic growth in the United States if administration officials cannot negotiate a quick resolution with the Chinese, and the tariffs go into effect. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research note this week that new investment restrictions on China, which the administration plans to outline soon, could also rattle investors.

分析人士繼續警告，如果美國政府官員不能與中國協商達成快速解決方案，導致關稅生效，那麼可能會給美國的經濟增長帶來潛在風險。高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)的分析師本週在一份研究報告中表示，政府計劃很快出臺的對中國的新投資限制，也令投資者感到不安。

“Some additional market-disruptive policy moves regarding U.S.-China trade seem likely,” Goldman’s Alec Phillips wrote in the research note, which downplayed the odds of success in this week’s talks. “We believe a substantial breakthrough at this meeting is unlikely as the issues the U.S. has raised — intellectual property policies, technology transfer, and the ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy, in particular — are not the type of technical trade issues that can be resolved quickly.”

“在美中貿易方面，似乎有可能出現更多破壞市場的政策舉措，”高盛的亞歷克·菲利普斯(Alec Phillips)在這份研究報告中寫道。這份報告認爲本週談判成功的機率不高。“我們認爲，此次會議不太可能取得實質性突破，因爲美國提出的問題——知識產權政策、技術轉讓，尤其是《中國製造2025》戰略——不是那種能夠迅速解決的技術性貿易問題。”

The National Association of Manufacturers, one of the most influential business lobbying groups in Washington, has been pressing Mr. Trump and his economic team to open negotiations with the Chinese on a free-trade agreement, an ambitious move that many trade experts doubt would bear fruit, given the past struggles of American negotiators who have tried to secure far more limited agreements with China.

華盛頓最具影響力的商業遊說團體全國製造商協會(National Association of Manufacturers)一直在敦促特朗普和他的經濟團隊與中國就自由貿易協定展開談判。很多貿易專家認爲，這個雄心勃勃的舉措不會取得成果，因爲美國談判者曾經試圖與中國達成更有限的協議，但遇到了重重困難。

Jay Timmons, the president of the manufacturers’ group, urged Mr. Trump in a letter this year to “consider pursuing a truly modern, innovative and comprehensive bilateral trade agreement with China that wholly restructures our economic relationship.” The group’s vice president for international economic affairs, Linda Menghetti Dempsey, told a congressional subcommittee in April that such an effort would be “at once both a radical idea and, in our estimation, the most pragmatic and effective way forward” on trade with China.

該製造商團體的主席傑伊·蒂蒙斯(Jay Timmons)在今年的一封信中，敦促特朗普“考慮與中國達成一項真正現代、創新和全面的雙邊貿易協定，徹底重建兩國的經濟關係”。該團體負責國際經濟事務的副主席琳達·門蓋蒂·登普西(Linda Menghetti Dempsey)4月對一個國會小組委員會表示，這樣的努力“是一個激進的想法，但在我們看來，它也是”在與中國做生意方面“最務實、最有效的方式”。

The Obama administration attempted to negotiate a more limited agreement with China, a bilateral investment treaty, but could not finalize the deal before Mr. Trump took office. His team has not yet revived the talks.

奧巴馬政府曾經試圖與中國達成更有限的協議——一項雙邊投資協定——但未能在特朗普上臺之前敲定。他的團隊還沒有恢復談判。

Manufacturers have discussed the plan directly with Mr. Kudlow and with Vice President Mike Pence. Proponents say they believe the idea could appeal to Mr. Trump’s preference for bilateral trade agreements and his confidence in his negotiation skills.

製造商們與庫德洛及副總統邁克·彭斯(Mike Pence)直接討論過該計劃。支持者們表示，他們認爲，這個想法可能符合特朗普對雙邊貿易協定的偏愛以及他對自己談判技巧的信心。

However, White House officials have given no public indication that they are considering such a negotiation. Mr. Lighthizer, Mr. Navarro and other proponents of a harder line against China have argued that the Chinese tend to use such dialogues as a delaying tactic, and that past trade negotiations with them have not been productive.

不過，白宮官員沒有公開表示他們正在考慮這樣的談判。萊特希澤和納瓦羅等主張對中國採取強硬措施的人士認爲，中國往往將此類對話用作拖延戰術，過去與中國的貿易談判一直沒有成效。