給經貿協議數字擠水分

British prime minister Theresa May did not come back to London from her visit to China empty-handed last week. According to news reports, British businesses signed ￡9bn worth of deals with Chinese companies.

英國首相特里薩·梅(Theresa May)上週訪華後並未空手回到倫敦。據媒體報道，英國企業與中國企業簽署了價值90億英鎊的協議。

Similarly, after French president Emmanuel Macron visited China earlier this year, it was claimed that 20bn worth of contracts had been signed. These figures pale in comparison, however, with the announcement of investment and trade deals worth $250bn between the US and China when President Donald Trump went to the People’s Republic in November.

同樣，今年早些時候法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)訪華後不久，兩國據稱簽署了價值200億歐元的合同。然而，與唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)去年11月訪華時美中宣佈簽署的2500億美元投資和貿易協議相比，這些數字就相形見絀了。

Neither the Chinese nor the UK, French and US governments informed domestic audiences whether these agreements were definitive or merely memorandums of understanding which have no binding force. It is not uncommon for such non-binding agreements to be signed even when one or more of the parties has no intention of carrying through on any deal.

無論是中國還是英國、法國和美國的政府都沒有告訴國內受衆，這些協議是確定性的，還是僅僅是沒有約束力的諒解備忘錄。並不罕見的是，即使有一方或多方無意履行任何協議，它們也會簽署這種不具約束力的協議。

It is likely that the $250bn figure triumphantly touted by Mr Trump is inflated, as most of the deals were previously announced and approved before the president touched down in China. Others are merely pending transactions and therefore should not be considered new deals negotiated by Mr Trump. Indeed, given that the declaration of these deals is often largely politically driven, it is not surprising that figures are often inflated.

特朗普大肆吹噓的2500億美元很可能有所誇大，因爲大多數交易是在美國總統抵達中國之前宣佈和批准的。其他只是待定交易，因此不應被視爲特朗普談判達成的新交易。事實上，鑑於這些交易的宣佈在很大程度上往往是受政治驅動的，數字經常被誇大並不奇怪。

A major obstacle to turning diplomatic declarations into actual deals — and here the Chinese government is no exception — is that commitments made at the governmental level need to be transplanted into the domestic law in order to be implemented.

把外交聲明變成實際交易的一個主要障礙——在這方面中國政府也不例外——是政府層面的承諾需要移植到國內法律才能落實。

For example, two days after Mr Trump ended his China visit, Beijing announced a radical policy to open its financial sector to foreign companies. Limits on foreign ownership of banks, asset managers, securities firms and insurance companies will eventually be scrapped. This is part of China’s move to open up its $40tn financial sector, as well as an attempt to counter the charge that China does not play by the rules in global commerce.

例如，在特朗普結束訪華行程兩天後，北京宣佈了一項向外國公司開放國內金融業的激進政策。對銀行、資產管理公司、證券公司和保險公司的外資所有權限制最終將被取消。這是中國開放其40萬億美元金融業舉措的一部分，也是爲了反駁中國在全球商業中不遵守規則的指控。