中國穩步邁入國際體系

A lot can happen in a month in China — or at least in its markets. In the past four weeks, its banking regulator has launched a “regulatory windstorm” while the central bank has made the first move to ease capital controls, providing much needed liquidity to the offshore renminbi market.

在中國，一個月可以發生許多事情，至少在其市場上如此。在過去4周裏，中國銀行業監管機構掀起了“監管風暴”，中國央行也邁出了放鬆資本管制的第一步，向離岸人民幣市場提供亟需的流動性。

Meanwhile, BlackRock has for the first time publicly backed the inclusion of onshore stocks in MSCI’s indices, and Chinese officials have even criticised dividend-dodging companies, dubbed “iron cockerels”, and promised extra scrutiny. Some, it noted, have not paid out a penny in 20-plus years of listed existence.

與此同時，貝萊德(BlackRock)首次公開支持將中國內地股票納入MSCI明晟的指數，而中國官員甚至對不分紅的上市公司（所謂的“鐵公雞”）提出批評，承諾加強審查。監管部門指出，一些公司上市20多年來沒有分過紅。

With a very optimistic squint, one might read the collected actions as signs of an investor-friendly, western-style package of reforms. That would be misleading. But they do represent the ongoing process of developing China’s markets and linking them to the international system — one small tweak or reform at a time. For international investors, the easing of capital controls is the most eye-catching change, reflecting their ability to withdraw funds invested — a key concern cited last year by MSCI when it decided A-shares were not yet fit for inclusion.

從非常樂觀的角度來看，人們可能將這些集體行動解讀爲中國將會推出對投資者友好、西方式改革方案的跡象。這樣想就錯了。但這些行動的確代表着中國持續發展國內市場、並與國際體系接軌的努力——每次調整或改革一點點。對國際投資者來說，放鬆資本管制是最吸引眼球的改變，意味着他們能夠撤回投資資金——這是去年MSCI明晟在認定A股仍不符合納入標準時援引的一個關鍵顧慮。

Essentially, Beijing has stepped back from a one-out one-in policy, introduced earlier this year, when outgoing cross-border payments in renminbi had to be at least matched by inflows. Given it is easier to convert renminbi offshore, the channel was an important conduit for outflows. It was also a key source of liquidity in the offshore renminbi market, centred in Hong Kong.

從根本上說，中國廢止了今年早些時候推出的“一出一進”政策，當時外流的跨境人民幣支付至少要和流入相當。鑑於境外更容易兌換人民幣，該渠道是資本外流的重要管道。它還是以香港爲核心的離岸人民幣市場的流動性的關鍵來源。

“While regulators have no intention of stopping genuine trade, increased scrutiny of cross-border [activity] has delayed transactions,” said Nathan Chow at DBS.

星展銀行(DBS)的周洪禮(Nathan Chow)表示：“儘管監管機構無意阻止真正的交易，但加大審查跨境（活動）還是導致了交易延遲。”

As of February, renminbi deposits in Hong Kong were half their Rmb1tn ($145bn) peak reached in December 2014. Renminbi payments suffered too: data showed just 16.7 per cent of China’s goods trade was settled in the currency in February, down from 24 per cent a year earlier.

截止今年2月，香港人民幣存款僅爲2014年12月達到的1萬億元人民幣（合1450億美元）峯值水平的一半。人民幣支付也受到影響：數據顯示，今年2月中國只有16.7%的商品貿易用人民幣結算，而一年前的比例是24%。

“It is too early to say this is a turning point [but] we believe that this at least shows that China is still keen to push forward with renminbi internationalisation,” said Hao Zhou, strategist at Commerzbank.

德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)的策略師周浩表示：“現在說這是一個轉折點爲時尚早，（但）我們相信，這至少表明中國仍有積極意願推動人民幣國際化。”

The stream of orders, largely from the China Banking Regulatory Commission, has taken some by surprise. While some have focused on the shadow banking sector and wealth management products, others have concentrated on the interbank market, underlining Beijing’s focus this year on deleveraging and the role that this kind of regulatory tightening can play.

主要由中國銀監會(CBRC)發出的一系列文件讓一些人吃了一驚。一些文件聚焦於影子銀行領域和理財產品，還有一些則關注銀行間市場，凸顯出中國政府今年聚焦於去槓桿化以及這種監管收緊可以發揮的作用。

One move from China’s central clearing agency raised the standards for collateral permitted in exchange-traded repo transactions. This is expected to increase costs for lower rated bonds — which many analysts think is long overdue.

中國證券登記結算有限責任公司出臺的新規，提高了交易所交易的債券回購的質押標準。預計這將會增加較低評級債券的成本——許多分析師認爲早該如此。

The most straightforward of all the recent changes would be MSCI’s inclusion of mainland A-shares in its global indices, should it go ahead. A decision from the index provider is due in June, and BlackRock’s public support for inclusion is a powerful endorsement from the world’s largest fund manager. The importance of MSCI inclusion is not only sheer weight of money that follows its indices, although at $1.5tn for its benchmark Emerging Markets one, these are considerable. The real significance is that a decision in favour would make MSCI the first major index provider to commit directly to include mainland assets.

在最近的所有改變中，最明確的將是如果MSCI明晟同意，A股將會被納入其全球指數。這家指數提供商定於今年6月作出決定，全球最大基金公司貝萊德公開支持納入A股，這提供了有力背書。MSCI明晟納入A股的重要意義不僅僅在於大量追蹤其指數的資金——儘管確實有1.5萬億美元追蹤其基準的新興市場指數，這是相當大的數目。真正的意義在於，納入A股的決定將讓MSCI明晟成爲首個直接承諾納入內地資產的主要指數提供商。

Others such as rival FTSE Russell and, in the bond markets, Bloomberg have opted for a “parallel universe” approach where they maintain mainland-free indices alongside new ones to give their clients the choice. MSCI’s plan, to include only A-shares tradeable through the Stock Connect linking Hong Kong through the mainland bourses, in theory also avoids a commitment to the mainland, as investors do not need China presence to trade.

其他與MSCI明晟競爭的指數提供商，比如富時羅素(FTSE Russell)以及債券市場上的彭博(Bloomberg)，選擇了“平行宇宙”做法，同時提供不納入A股的指數與納入A股的新指數，供客戶自己選擇。MSCI明晟提出的只納入能夠在內地與香港股市互聯互通機制(Stock Connect)下交易的A股股票的計劃，在理論上也避免了資金進入內地市場的問題，投資者不需要進入中國內地市場交易。

This is MSCI’s fourth proposal for including A-shares in as many years. Expect the usual heated debate about the state of China’s markets as its decision in June nears. Not all the issues that derailed inclusion have been addressed by any means. But still the reform process has moved ahead, however piecemeal. The past month’s tweaks and nudges add up to something that starts to looks like progress.

這是MSCI明晟這麼多年來第四次提議納入A股。距離該公司作決定的時間（6月）越來越近，料想人們將又一次像往常一樣圍繞中國的市場經濟地位展開熱議。中國並未不惜代價地解決所有阻礙A股納入的問題。但改革確實前進了，無論步伐多麼細碎。過去一個月的調整和努力匯聚在一起，讓進步初具雛形。