美聯儲9月份暫不加息的決定來得很懸
September’s decision by the US Federal Reserve to hold interest rates unchanged was a “close call” and some policymakers thought a move could be merited relatively soon, minutes to the meeting revealed yesterday.
美聯儲(Fed)在9月的會議上保持利率不變的決定來得“很懸”，部分政策制定者當時認爲，應當相對較早地採取加息行動。該會議的會議記錄於昨日公佈。
Officials were largely agreed that the case for a rise in short-term rates had strengthened in the weeks leading up to the September 20-21 meeting, with a number of policymakers seeking to signal that move could happen within months if the economy stayed on track.
大多數官員當時都認同，在9月20日至21日的議息會議前的幾周裏，提高短期利率的理由已經加強。多位政策制定者試圖暗示，只要經濟保持在當前軌道上，加息就有可能在幾個月內發生。
“Some participants believed that it would be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon if the labour market continued to improve and economic activity strengthened,” the minutes said. On the other hand, “some others preferred to wait for more convincing evidence that inflation was moving toward the committee’s 2 per cent objective”.
該會議記錄表示：“部分與會者認爲，如果就業市場繼續好轉、經濟活動得到加強，相對較早提高聯邦基金利率的目標範圍將是合適的。”另一方面，“部分其他與會者則傾向於等待更多有說服力的證據，證明通脹率正在向委員會制定的2%的目標移動”。
The Fed was heavily divided at its latest meeting, with policymakers diverging over how quickly they needed to respond to improving labour market data. After the decision, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, stressed there was scope for further improvement in the labour market before the central bank needed to lift rates for a second time since its December increase.
在最近這次議息會議上，美聯儲分歧嚴重，政策制定者們對需要多快地迴應正在改善的就業市場數據看法不一。在作出保持利率不變的決定之後，美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)強調，在美聯儲需要實施第二次加息之前，就業市場仍存在進一步改善的餘地。美聯儲上次加息是在去年的12月份。
Job numbers released after that meeting have supported that argument, as the unemployment rate inched up amid signs Americans are being drawn off the sidelines and into the labour force. However, the minutes point to a vocal contingent of Fed officials who are eager to move soon. The Fed has two more meetings this year, one on November 1-2 and the final one on December 13-14.
在那次會議之後公佈的就業數據支持了耶倫這一觀點：有多種跡象表明更多美國人加入就業大軍，失業率隨之小幅上升。不過，會議記錄顯示，有多名美聯儲官員都明確表達了早日加息的迫切希望。今年美聯儲還將召開兩次議息會議，一次是在11月1日到2日，最後一次則是在12月13日到14日。
Three Federal Open Market Committee members formally dissented at the no-change decision, saying they wanted an immediate increase. The minutes suggested they were not alone, with some officials arguing that a delay would “unduly increase the risk of the unemployment rate falling markedly below its longer-run normal level”. If that happened, the Fed could be forced to lift rates more sharply, hitting the economy harder.
有三位聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)成員對保持利率不變的決定正式表示了異議，他們表示希望馬上加息。會議記錄顯示持有異議的不止他們三人，部分官員聲稱，拖延加息或“不當地加大失業率降至顯著低於較長期正常水平的風險”。如果發生這種情況，美聯儲可能不得不更急劇地加息，從而更沉重地打擊經濟。
The hawks at the meeting also said they were worried the Fed was appearing to diverge from its past behaviour by holding fire for so long, meaning that it could risk “eroding its credibility” given recent economic data had been in line with its expectations.
那次會議上的鷹派還表示，他們擔心美聯儲按兵不動的時間如此之長，顯得它偏離了過去的行爲方式，考慮到近期經濟數據符合美聯儲預期，這意味着美聯儲可能有“損失可信度”的風險。
A number of those who argued in favour of waiting saw the decision as a “close call”. It was noted that arguments could be made for an increase at September’s meeting and for waiting for more evidence on the strength of the labour market and inflation.
多名支持美聯儲暫不加息的與會者認爲，這一決定來得“很懸”。可以看到，兩種決定——即在9月的議息會議上加息，或是暫不加息、等待更多證據證明就業市場和通脹率確實表現強勁——都有站得住腳的理由。
Market expectations for the next move centre on the Fed’s December meeting, with futures trading suggesting that investors are putting the chances of a move at about 67 per cent, according to Bloomberg calculations. The chances of a November rise were at just over one in five before the minutes’ release, with many investors judging it to be unlikely that the central bank would want to change policy just a few days before the presidential election.
市場對下次加息的預期集中於美聯儲12月份的議息會議，根據彭博(Bloomberg)的計算，期貨交易暗示投資者估計的加息可能性爲大約67%。而在這次的會議記錄公佈前，11月份加息的可能性爲五分之一多一點，原因是許多投資者判斷，美聯儲不太可能想在美國總統大選僅幾天前改變政策。
Bill Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, said yesterday before the release of the minutes that the Fed could be “gentle” in removing stimulus, given there was “plenty of room to run” in the economic expansion. His cautious words suggested he may not be angling for a move as soon as the Fed’s next meeting in November.
紐約聯儲銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)行長比爾•達德利(Bill Dudley)昨天在會議記錄公佈前表示，考慮到經濟增長還有“足夠的空間”，美聯儲可能會以“輕柔”手法撤掉刺激政策。他謹慎的措辭意味着，他或許未謀求在11月份的美聯儲下次議息會議上就採取加息行動。
The minutes revealed diverging views as to how soon to pull the trigger, underscoring the sense of division on how to respond to complex signals about the health of the US labour market.
會議記錄披露了在何時加息上的觀點不一，凸顯出圍繞如何迴應關於美國就業市場狀況的複雜信號存在着分歧。
