美聯儲高官淡化9月加息預期
A top Federal Reserve official has damped expectations that the central bank would raise US interest rates next month, highlighting how the turmoil that has spread from China to global markets is rattling policymakers.
美聯儲(Federal Reserve)一名高級官員淡化了這家央行將在下月提高美國利率的預期，突顯從中國蔓延至全球市場的動盪正使政策制定者們不安。
William Dudley, head of the New York branch of the Fed, told a conference that it was “important not to overreact to short-term market developments” but conceded that the argument for tightening monetary policy as early as September “seem[s] less compelling to me [now] than it was a few weeks ago”.
紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長威廉達德利(William Dudley)在一個會議上表示，“不對短期市場動態作出過度反應是重要的”，但承認，最早在9月就收緊貨幣政策的主張“在我看來似乎不如幾周前那麼有說服力”。
“International developments have increased the downside risk to US economic growth somewhat,” he said, citing China’s economic slowdown, falling commodity prices, strains on emerging markets and the resulting “financial market volatility”.
“國際上的事態增加了美國經濟增長的下行風險，”他說。他提到中國經濟增長放緩，大宗商品價格不斷下跌，新興市場出現緊張，以及這一切導致的“金融市場波動”。
He was speaking after days of steep slides in Chinese shares, which have lost half their value since mid-June amid mounting evidence of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The declines have spread alarm across global equities, commodities and foreign exchange markets.
達德利發表講話之前，中國股市連續數日大幅下跌。自6月中旬以來，隨着越來越多的證據證明全球第二大經濟體增長放緩，中國股票已失去一半價值。此輪跌勢已在全球股票、大宗商品和外匯市場拉響警報。
The turmoil seen on Monday had eased yesterday, but markets remained volatile. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 saw big swings and closed down 1.9 per cent. China’s Shanghai Composite index also dropped 1.3 per cent, a day after the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates and pumped liquidity into the banking sector by reducing the reserve requirement ratio for big banks.
週一出現的動盪昨日已有所緩解，但市場仍動盪不定。歐洲的富時Eurofirst 300(FTSE Eurofirst 300)指數昨日出現較大波動，收盤下跌1.9%。中國的上證綜指(Shanghai Composite index)昨日也下降1.3%，就在前一日，中國央行(PBoC)宣佈降息，並通過降低針對大銀行的存款準備金率，向銀行業注入流動性。
Earlier this summer most economists were predicting that the Fed would raise rates in September for the first time in almost a decade.
今夏早些時候，多數經濟學家預計，美聯儲將在9月加息，這將是近10年來首次提高利率。
But market expectations of a hike next month are fading fast, with Barclays economists shifting their forecasts to March next year.
不過，對於下月加息的市場預期正在迅速消失，其中巴克萊(Barclays)經濟學家把他們預測的加息時機延後至明年3月。
Mr Dudley said he still hoped the Fed could raise interest rates by the end of the year, noting a move would be a sign of confidence in the US economy. He added that new data could yet make a September hike “more compelling”.
紐約聯儲的達德利表示，他仍然希望美聯儲能夠在年底前加息，並指出此舉將是對美國經濟有信心的標誌。他補充說，新的數據仍可能使9月就加息的主張“更有說服力”。
“I really do hope we can raise interest rates this let’s see how the data unfold before we make statements about when that might occur.”
“我真的希望我們能在今年加息……但是，讓我們先看看數據如何發展，然後再發表何時可能加息的聲明。”
Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, said on Monday he still expected interest rates to rise this year but Mr Dudley is the first Fed policymaker to speak in such detail since the global stock market sell-off.
亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行行長丹尼斯洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)週一曾表示，他仍預期利率將在今年內上升，但達德利是自全球股市出現拋售以來首位詳盡表態的美聯儲政策制定者。
Jeffrey Gundlach, the head of DoubleLine, a big bond fund manager, said that there was “no way” the Fed will lift interest rates this year. “There are some people that still think the Fed could hike in September. I think that’s a ridiculous assumption, given what is going on in financial markets,” he told the Financial Times. “I think we should be very worried about China. It’s a very big deal.”
大型債券基金管理公司DoubleLine掌門人傑弗裏蠠拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)表示，美聯儲今年加息是“不可能的事情”。“有一些人仍然認爲美聯儲可能會在9月加息。我認爲那是個荒謬的想法，考慮到金融市場正在發生的情況。”他對英國《金融時報》表示，“我認爲我們應該很擔心中國。這個問題非常重大。”
