耶倫爲美聯儲加息拓寬自由空間

Global markets have been operating with the safety net of the Federal Reserve’s zero-rates guidance for much of the current decade. On Tuesday, Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen gave the strongest signal to date that the end of that era is approaching as she paves the way for higher interest rates.

在本十年的大部分時間裏，全球市場在美聯儲(Federal Reserve)零利率指引的安全網保護下運行。週二，美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)發出迄今最強烈的信號：這個時代即將終結，她正在爲上調利率鋪平道路。

In testimony to a Senate committee, Ms Yellen indicated that if the economy carried on strengthening, the US central bank would want to drop its pledge to be “patient” with interest rates and start considering rises on a “meeting-by-meeting basis”. She said this would mean that a move in the target rate could be considered at “any” of the Federal Open Market Committee’s regular policy gatherings.

耶倫在對美國參議院的一個委員會作證時表示，如果美國經濟繼續加強，美國央行將希望放棄其“耐心”對待利率的承諾，轉而開始在“每次會議上具體問題具體分析”，考慮加息。她表示，這將意味着，在聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的“任何一次”定期政策會議上都可能考慮調整目標利率。

The impending change in guidance — which analysts think could come as soon as the Fed’s next meeting in March — suggests the central bank wants to give itself maximum flexibility to set monetary policy, rather than finding itself bound by date-dependent pledges.

即將改變的指引——分析師們認爲，這最早可能在美聯儲3月舉行的下一次會議上到來——似乎表明，美國央行希望賦予自己最大的靈活性來制定貨幣政策，而不是讓自己受到“日期依賴型”承諾的束縛。

This would mark a clean break from the Fed’s current practice, under which it has been reassuring markets that it will be “patient” before lifting rates, meaning it will wait at least two further meetings before acting.

這將標誌着美聯儲徹底告別現行做法；美聯儲迄今一直向市場保證，它在加息之前會保持“耐心”，意思就是它至少將再等待兩次會議過後纔會採取行動。

That language was a twist on previous wording assuring markets that rates would stay low for a “considerable” period — which itself marked an evolution from earlier forms of low-rates guidance tied to the unemployment rate, and to a fixed time period.

保持耐心措辭是對之前用詞的微調；之前美聯儲向市場保證，利率將在一段“相當長”時期內保持低位——那本身標誌着先前的低利率指引形式發生演變；先前的指引將低利率與失業率掛鉤，而且有一段固定的時期。

The shift will inject greater uncertainty into markets that have been pumped up by the more than six years of ultra-low interest rates. It should also avoid a re-run of the rate rise cycle of the mid-2000s, when the Fed felt locked into making quarter-point increases in every meeting.

這一轉變將給六年多來一直受到超低利率刺激的市場注入更大的不確定性。它也應當能夠避免本世紀頭十年中期的加息週期的重演，那時美聯儲覺得自己被逼入每次開會加息四分之一點的境地。

George Magnus, an author and former chief economist at UBS, said greater unpredictability was welcome. “The Fed doesn’t want to cosset financial markets in the way it has done until now,” he said. “This is reverting back to a position where they want to tell the market it should be pretty much on standby for a change in monetary policy as and when the Fed thinks it is merited.”

作家、瑞銀(UBS)前首席經濟學家喬治•馬格納斯(George Magnus)表示，更大的不可預測性是可喜的。“美聯儲不希望像之前那樣寵着金融市場，”他表示。“此舉標誌着美聯儲回到原來的立場，希望告訴市場：市場基本上應當隨時準備好迎接貨幣政策的變化——只要美聯儲認爲改變政策是可取的。”

Dov Zigler, an economist at Scotiabank in New York, said the FOMC seemed ready to remove the “final vestiges” of calendar-based guidance it briefly used earlier this decade, moving instead towards “data dependency” in policy making. Economists at Barclays said: “The end of forward guidance is in sight.”

加拿大豐業銀行(Scotiabank)在紐約的經濟學家多夫•齊格勒(Dov Zigler)表示，聯邦公開市場委員會似乎已準備好消除其在本十年早些時候短暫用過的基於日曆的指引的“最後痕跡”，在政策制定中轉向“數據依賴”。巴克萊(Barclays)的經濟學家們表示：“前瞻性指引的終結已經可以看到。”

Ms Yellen told the Senate committee that the US economy was in a genuinely stronger place than it was even a year ago. The labour market had improved along “many dimensions” — even if there was still room for further progress — and growth should stay strong enough to continue pulling down unemployment.

耶倫對參議院委員會表示，美國經濟確實處於比一年前強勁的境地。勞動力市場已經在“多個維度上”出現起色——即便仍有進一步進展的餘地，同時增長應當能夠保持強勁，足以繼續拉低失業率。

However, in nuanced testimony, Ms Yellen also assured senators that the Fed would not pull the trigger prematurely and stifle the recovery. Indeed, one of her goals was to ensure that if the Fed removed the “patience” language in March, it would not prompt markets to believe a rate rise two meetings later was a fait accompli.

然而，耶倫在字斟句酌的證詞中也向參議員們保證，美聯儲不會過早扣動扳機，扼殺經濟復甦。事實上，她的目標之一就是要確保，如果美聯儲在3月份取消“耐心”措辭，它不會促使市場認爲兩次會議之後加息已是一個既成事實。

Ms Yellen also stressed the risks of being too slow in acting. Policy was “highly accommodative” and the central bank needed to be forward-looking. If it waited too long, the labour market and inflation could pick up sufficiently for the Fed to overshoot its 2 per cent inflation target. Significantly, there could be “financial stability risks” in leaving rates low for too long.

耶倫也強調了行動過於遲緩的風險。此前的政策“高度寬鬆”，而美國央行需要具有前瞻性。如果它等待過久，勞動力市場和通脹可能顯著改善，以致通脹水平超出美聯儲的2%目標。值得注意的是，如果保持低利率過久，就可能產生“金融穩定風險”。

The “patience” language remains in place for now. But when it is dropped, Ms Yellen’s testimony hinted at the test for judging when “lift-off” in rates should happen.

“耐心”措辭暫時得到保留。但當它被放棄時，耶倫的證詞暗示了判斷利率何時“起飛”的測試標準。

The FOMC would be ready to raise rates when it was “reasonably confident” that inflation was moving back towards its 2 per cent target over the medium term — provided the labour market was set to continue improving, she said. While the Fed has left itself plenty of room to back away from rises if the economy falters, reasonable confidence is not an excessively high bar for rate increases.

她表示，聯邦公開市場委員會準備加息的背景將是，其“有理由相信”通脹在中期內會迴歸2%的目標——前提是勞動力市場有望繼續好轉。儘管美聯儲給自己留下了足夠迴旋餘地，能夠在經濟失穩的情況下暫緩加息，但就加息而言，合理信心並不是過高的門檻。

That said, the Fed is sticking with previous guidance that rates will for some time remain below levels that are normal in the longer run, even once employment and inflation return to levels consistent with its mandate.

儘管如此，美聯儲仍堅持先前的指引，即利率將在一段時期內保持在低於長遠來看正常的水平，即便在就業和通脹迴歸至與其使命相符的水平後也是這樣。

Close watchers of the Fed who obsess about whether the central bank will raise rates in June or September were not given any definitive indications. But that made sense. Ms Yellen’s goal was to free the central bank’s hand to act when necessary, not to anchor market expectations on a particular date.

密切觀察美聯儲的人士沒有看到這家央行將在6月還是9月加息的明確跡象。但這是可以理解的。耶倫的目標就是爲美聯儲創造自由行動的空間，在必要時採取行動，而不是將市場預期錨定於某一特定日期。