中國欲收購更多境外銅礦確保銅供應
China will continue to acquire overseas copper mining assets to secure supply despite the uncertain outlook for commodity prices and scarcity of large projects, the vice-president of the country’s largest metal trader has said.
中國最大金屬交易商中國五礦集團公司(China Minmetals)副總裁焦健(Jerry Jiao)表示，儘管大宗商品價格前景充滿不確定性、大型銅礦項目稀缺，中國仍將繼續收購境外銅礦資產以確保銅的供應。
“China is very short of copper resources,” Jerry Jiao, vice-president of China Minmetals, told the World Copper Conference in Santiago. “The only way to make stable supply of copper resources . . . going overseas is the only solution.”
在聖地亞哥召開的世界銅業大會(World Copper Conference)上，焦健表示：“中國極度缺乏銅資源。確保銅資源供應穩定只有一個辦法……趕赴境外就是這唯一的解決方案。”
The world’s largest mining companies are looking to shed assets as they seek to cut their debt loads and move away from a large diversified business model focused on multiple commodities. Swiss mining company Glencore is looking to sell its Lomas Bayas copper mine in Chile, while reports have also suggested that US copper miner Freeport-McMoRan may be willing to sell a stake in its El Abra mine in the South American country.
目前，全球最大礦企正試圖減輕債務負擔，擺脫關注多種大宗商品的極爲多元化的商業模式。出於這個原因，這些礦企正在尋求剝離資產。瑞士礦企商嘉能可(Glencore)正在尋求出售位於智利的洛馬斯•巴亞斯(Lomas Bayas)銅礦。與此同時，還有報道暗示，美國銅礦企業麥克墨倫自由港銅金公司(Freeport-McMoRan)或有意出售位於智利的艾爾•阿布拉(El Abra)銅礦部分股份。
Minmetals is the owner of the big Las Bambas mine in Peru, which started shipping copper this year. It agreed to sell copper concentrate from the mine to a local unit of China’s state-owned Citic group, it said in January.
五礦集團是祕魯拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)大型銅礦的東家，該礦已於今年投產。該集團曾在今年1月表示，同意將產自該礦的銅精礦銷售給中國國企中信集團(Citic)在國內的一家分部。
“We all know there are not many Las Bambas out there, it’s not easy to develop a huge mine,” Mr Jaio said. “It is more and more difficult to get one tonne of copper produced.”
焦健表示：“我們都知道，像拉斯邦巴斯這樣的銅礦並不多，開發巨型銅礦並不容易。生產每一噸銅礦的難度越來越大。”
Last December China’s state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said that Minmetals, which was founded in 1950, would merge with Metallurgical Corp of China, an infrastructure and construction group. That will allow the combined entity to control the whole metals value chain from mining to construction.
去年12月，中國國有資產監督管理委員會(State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission)曾表示，創立於1950年的五礦集團或與基建和建築集團中冶集團(Metallurgical Corp of China)合併。此舉將令合併後的實體得以控制從採礦到建築在內的整個金屬價值鏈條。
Last year Minmetals copper production rose to a record high of 217,000 tonnes, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
根據中國官方新華社(Xinhua)的報道，五礦集團的銅產量曾在去年躍升至21.7萬噸的創紀錄高點。
But Minmetals could face severe competition for copper assets from miners such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, who both have positive views on copper. There are also billions of assets in private equity that could bid for any projects.
不過，五礦集團可能會面臨來自必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等礦商對銅資產的激烈爭奪。後兩者都對銅產業持正面看法。此外，私募股權領域還有數以十億計的資產，可能會對任何銅礦類項目發起競購。
Even miners with stretched balance sheets are not selling their best copper assets as the metal is expected to be in short supply by the end of the decade.
由於在這個十年底結束時，銅預計會處於供應短缺狀態，即使是資產負債表十分緊張的礦商，也不願出售旗下最好的銅資產。
China has built out its smelting capacity over the past ten years as it has grown to consume about 40 per cent of the world’s copper. But it is still reliant on overseas mines for the raw copper material.
中國在過去十年裏積累了巨大的冶煉產能，同期內中國也已成長爲消耗量約佔全球40%的國家。不過，中國仍需依賴境外銅礦，才能滿足對粗銅材料的需求。
China’s copper consumption is akin to a “reverse pyramid,” Mr Jiao said. It consumes about 11m tonnes, and produces about 7m tonnes of copper cathode. But it can only supply 1.7m tonnes from its domestic mining.
焦健表示，中國的銅消耗狀況類似於“倒金字塔”。中國的銅消耗量約爲1100萬噸，電解銅產量約爲700萬噸。然而，中國國內採掘的銅供應量卻只有170萬噸。
“It’s easy for China to build a smelter but not to find resources,” he said. “Going forward [the] concentrate or mining sector will still occupy a large percentage of value along the whole value chain.”
他說：“對中國來說，修建精煉廠十分容易，找到銅資源卻不容易。向銅精礦或採礦業部門前進一步，仍會在整個價值鏈條中佔據很大比例的價值。”
Mr Jiao said that emerging industries in China, such as automotive and renewable energy, are increasing their intensity of copper use. But the price outlook for the metal depends on whether China can successfully transition its economy towards these new industries and away from the old industrial sectors.
焦健表示，在中國，汽車和可再生能源等新興產業正在提高銅的使用率。然而，銅價前景要看中國能否成功讓經濟擺脫舊的工業部門，轉向這類新興產業。
“If we believe China has made a stable adjustment then we will feel at ease that copper will face a stable and balanced situation,” he said.
他說：“如果我們相信中國已實現平穩調整，我們放心地認爲，銅產業將面臨一個穩定而平衡的局面。”
However, Goldman Sachs, which has been one of the most bearish banks on copper and other commodities, warned that if China’s transition to a more consumer-led economy is successful, then copper demand growth is likely to be between flat to about 3 per cent.
不過，作爲對銅和其他大宗商品最不看好的銀行之一，高盛(Goldman Sachs)曾警告稱，在中國向消費主導型經濟的轉型取得成功的前提下，銅需求增長的可能區間，也只會在持平到大約3%的增速之間。
“At best, if China manages its bumpy deceleration, which includes a big reduction in investment share of GDP over the next three to five years, the copper market will turn,” Goldman analyst Max Layton told the conference.
高盛分析師馬克斯•萊頓(Max Layton)在大會上表示：“在最好的情況下，假如中國磕磕絆絆的降速過程不出差錯——包括在今後三到五年內大幅降低投資與國內生產總值(GDP)之比，銅市場將會轉向。
“If they perfectly manage this transaction then copper markets should turn. All the other scenarios that I come up with are worse than that for copper.”
“倘若他們完美實現了這一轉型，銅市場應該會扭轉。對銅產業來說，我能想到的其他所有情形都比這糟糕。”
