默克爾 歐盟不可或缺的領導人
There was something distinctly presidential about Angela Merkel’s European travels last week.
安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)上週的歐洲之旅頗有總統風采。
The German chancellor met 15 other EU leaders on a whistle-stop tour of the continent.
這位德國總理在旋風般訪問歐洲大陸期間會晤了15名歐盟(EU)其他領導人。
It is the kind of speed-dating diplomacy that US presidents often undertake, as they build consensus and reassure allies.
這種速配式的外交活動是美國曆屆總統在凝聚共識和讓盟友放心的時候經常會採取的方式。
Ms Merkel’s emergence as the de facto leader of the EU is controversial.
默克爾成爲歐盟事實上的領導人是有爭議的。
The Hungarians, Poles and Czechs are bitterly critical of her government’s policy on refugees.
匈牙利、波蘭和捷克對默克爾政府的難民政策持強烈批評態度。
The Greeks accuse the Merkel government of driving their economy into the ground.
希臘譴責默克爾政府把希臘經濟逼入絕境。
The French and the Italians bemoan Germany’s insistence on austerity.
法國和意大利則抱怨德國對財政緊縮政策的堅持。
Some Brits blame Ms Merkel for Brexit, arguing that she could have delivered a better deal on migration.
部分英國人把英國退歐的原因歸咎於默克爾，聲稱她本來可以在移民問題上提供更有利於英國的安排。
Meanwhile, in Brussels there are grumbles that the German chancellor has pushed the European Commission to one side.
同時，在布魯塞爾有人抱怨稱，這位德國總理已把歐盟委員會(European Commission)推到一邊。
Ms Merkel has undoubtedly made her share of mistakes, particularly over the refugee crisis.
默克爾無疑也犯過錯誤，尤其是在難民危機上。
But there is no other European leader with the authority and patience to forge the deals that are necessary to keep the EU together.
然而，要說達成必要的協議以確保歐盟團結，歐洲沒有其他領導人有這樣的權威和耐心。
And some kind of leadership is badly needed because the union faces at least six acute and interconnected problems.
而且，現在正是亟需某種領導力的時候，因爲歐盟面臨至少六個尖銳且相互關聯的問題。
The first and newest is Brexit.
第一個、也是最新的問題是英國退歐。
The second is the euro.
第二個問題是歐元問題。
The third is refugees.
第三個問題是難民問題。
The fourth is Russia.
第四個問題是俄羅斯問題。
The fifth is the erosion of democratic values and practices in Hungary and Poland.
第五個問題是民主價值觀和實踐在匈牙利和波蘭正受到侵蝕。
And the sixth is the rise of the political extremes across Europe.
第六個問題是全歐洲政治極端主義的擡頭。
The chancellor appears minded to take Brexit slowly and carefully.
德國總理似乎對英國退歐抱着緩慢而謹慎的心態。
For the moment, her position seems likely to prevail over early French demands to force the pace.
就目前而言，她的立場似乎壓倒了早些時候法國要求的快速了斷。
But a long delay is also potentially problematic since it prolongs uncertainty and invites a backlash from hardliners in Britain and Brussels.
不過，拖延太久可能也會有問題，因爲那會延長不確定性，並招致英國和歐盟強硬派的反彈。
Perhaps the most sensitive stop on Ms Merkel’s tour last week was Warsaw, where a nationalist and reactionary government stands accused of eroding the independence of the courts and the media.
默克爾上週歐洲之行中，最敏感的一站也許是對華沙的訪問。民族主義傾向的、開歷史倒車的波蘭政府被指侵蝕法院和媒體的獨立性。
On his recent trip to Warsaw, Barack Obama saw fit to issue a public rebuke to the Polish government. Ms Merkel did not emulate the US president, but there is no doubt about the depth of concern in Berlin over Poland and Hungary.
巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在最近的華沙之行中，不客氣地對波蘭政府進行了公開指責。默克爾沒有效仿美國總統，但柏林方面對波蘭和匈牙利的憂慮之深是毫無疑問的。
The problem is that the EU is meant simultaneously to be a community of values and a mechanism for managing the relations between member states.
問題在於，歐盟既代表一種價值觀的共同體，又是一個管理成員國相互關係的機制。
If Germany exerts too much pressure on Poland and Hungary over internal political issues it may find that co-operation simply breaks down, making it all but impossible to find solutions to shared problems.
如果德國對波蘭和匈牙利的內政問題施加太多壓力，它可能發現合作乾脆停擺，這會導致幾乎不可能找到解決方案應對共同面對的問題。
Germany’s ability to forge a common EU approach to the migrant crisis is anyway massively complicated by the fact that the policies Ms Merkel adopted last summer are far more liberal than the union’s norm.
德國在難民危機上凝聚歐盟共同對策的能力，本來就被一個事實搞得極爲複雜化，那就是默克爾去年夏天採取的政策比歐盟的慣例要自由化得多。
After accepting more than 1m refugees, Germany’s effort to impose a modicum of burden sharing on its partner members has caused a bitter backlash in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, where Ms Merkel is widely accused of endangering Europe’s security and culture.
在接收逾100萬難民之後，德國要求其夥伴國分擔少量負擔的努力，在波蘭、匈牙利和捷克引發了激烈反彈。在這些國家，人們普遍指責默克爾令歐洲的安全與文化陷入危險之中。
She was greeted by anti-refugee demonstrators in Prague last week.
上週，反對接收難民的示威者在布拉格迎接她的到訪。
This tension between Germany and the central Europeans supplements the divisions between Berlin and southern European nations, created by the euro crisis.
德國與中歐國家關係緊張的同時，柏林方面因歐元危機與南歐國家產生分歧。
The euro’s problems could soon escalate, particularly if the International Monetary Fund decides, later this year, to end its participation in the bailout of Greece.
歐元問題可能很快就會升級——尤其是如果國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在今年晚些時候決定不再參與紓困希臘的話。
That, in turn, could lead the Dutch and German parliaments to withdraw their support.
這進而可能導致荷蘭和德國議會撤回對紓困希臘的支持。
The EU has always been able to surmount the many crises it has faced because the national leaders who gather at union summits in Brussels are ultimately all committed to finding compromises that make the system work.
歐盟過去一直能夠戰勝它面臨的許多危機，原因是匯聚布魯塞爾參加歐盟峯會的各國領導人歸根結底都致力於找到令整個體系運轉的妥協方案。
But if nationalist or anti-EU leaders win power in enough European countries, then the spirit of co-operation on which the EU depends may evaporate — and with it the EU itself.
然而，如果民族主義傾向或反歐盟的領導人在足夠多的歐洲國家掌權，歐盟賴以生存發展的合作精神可能煙消雲散——歐盟自身也可能不保。
Brexit is the most serious example of this process at work.
英國退歐是這一過程發揮作用的最嚴重例子。
But the EU faces a further series of trials-by-populism over the coming months.
然而，今後幾個月歐盟還會遭遇一系列民粹主義挑戰。
In October, a far-right candidate is quite likely to win the presidency of Austria.
今年10月，極右翼候選人很可能會贏得奧地利的總統選舉。
Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, may be forced from office around the same time, and all the likely alternatives in Italy are Eurosceptics.
意大利總理馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)也許會在差不多相同時間被迫卸任，而意大利所有可能的替代人選都是歐洲懷疑論者。
The challenges will keep coming in 2017, with national elections in the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and France, all of which are likely to see strong showings from Eurosceptic and far-right parties.
2017年，隨着荷蘭、捷克和法國舉行全國選舉，這樣的挑戰會繼續降臨，因爲這些選舉都很可能出現歐洲懷疑論和極右翼政黨的強勁表現。
Even Germany is seeing the centre-ground of politics shrink as the problems of assimilating the migrants who arrived in the country last year become more evident.
即使是在德國，隨着同化去年進入德國的難民的問題日益突出，政治中間立場的陣營也出現了收縮。
Meanwhile, Berlin has just estimated that another 300,000 refugees may arrive in 2016.
與此同時，柏林方面近日估計，2016年還會有30萬難民進入德國。
The result is a surge in support for the nationalist and Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany party (AfD), which is likely to do well in regional elections in the coming weeks.
其結果是民族主義和歐洲懷疑論政黨——德國新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)人氣飆升，該黨很可能在今後幾周的地區選舉中表現不錯。
Much of Ms Merkel’s authority in Europe stems from her command of politics in Germany.
默克爾在歐洲的很大一部分權威源自她對德國政壇的掌控。
A chancellor who is losing her magic touch at home will find it harder to act as the de facto leader of the continent.
在國內正失去魔力的德國總理，會發現自己更難扮演歐洲大陸事實上的領導人。
Many European governments harbour resentment against Ms Merkel.
歐洲許多國家的政府懷有對默克爾的憎恨。
But they will miss her ability to keep Europe together when she finally falls.
不過，一旦默克爾最終失勢，它們將懷念她保持歐洲團結的能力。
