汽車市場的天平正傾向高端品牌
When you talked cars not long ago, chances are you talked about the mass market brands: Mustang vs. Camaro, minivan or SUV, Toyota quality and Nissan design. Luxury models were an afterthought, a tiny slice of the market designed for the wealthy that was focused on more rather than better: more wood, more leather, more chrome, more status.
在不久前，當人們談論汽車的時候，多數討論的可能是一些大衆化的市場品牌，比如福特野馬（Mustang）和通用科邁羅（Camaro）哪個好，買多功能休旅車還是買SUV，豐田（Toyota）的品質和日產（Nissan）的設計誰更勝一籌等等。豪華車一般不是討論的主流。而且這個專爲富裕階層設計的細分市場往往更關注的是“多”而不是“好”：更多木料，更多皮革，更多鍍鉻，更顯身價。
Now the balance is shifting. Mass manufacturers are struggling with skinny margins, shifting loyalties, and global competitors while the makers of high-end cars seem to coast above the fray. They are accumulating record sales and building waiting lists of eager customers. More models bearing luxury brands are coming to market than ever before—and at more accessible price points. BMW alone will bring out five new or redesigned models for 2015, including its first two electrified cars. When the directors of the North American Car of the Year compiled their list of potential candidates for this year’s award, fully half were from luxury manufacturers. (For the purpose of this column, luxury brands include Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Porsche, Lexus, Infiniti, Jaguar, Land Rover, Cadillac, Lincoln, Volvo, Acura, and Tesla).
如今這個天平正在發生傾斜。大衆化汽車廠商正努力解決利潤變薄、品牌忠誠度轉移和全球競爭加劇等問題，而高端品牌顯示出了後來居上的勢頭。不少高端品牌都創造了創紀錄的銷量，而且還有很多顧客排隊等着提車。豪車品牌推陳出新的力度也超過了以往，而且價格也越來越親民。光是寶馬公司（BMW）2015年就將推出5款新車或換代車型，其中包括兩款首次推出的電動車型。今年的“北美年度風雲車”（North American Car of the Year）大獎侯選名單中，有一半車型都來自豪華品牌。[本文中的豪華品牌包括梅塞德斯-奔馳（Mercedes）、寶馬（BMW）、奧迪（Audi）、保時捷（Porsche）、雷克薩斯（Lexus）、英菲尼迪（Infiniti）、捷豹（Jaguar）、路虎（Land Rover）、凱迪拉克（Cadillac）、林肯（Lincoln）、沃爾沃（Volvo）、謳歌（Acura）和特斯拉（Tesla）。]To date, the big winners have been two German makers and one Japanese. While car sales inched up a mere 1% in July, luxury car sales jumped 6%, led by Lexus, Mercedes, and BMW. This year, high-end brands have accounted for 16% of all sales growth this year, though they represent just 10.8% of the overall market., according to Automotive News. Luxury car sales should top 1.8 million cars and trucks this year and may exceed the all-time high of 1.83 million set in 2007.
到目前爲止，豪車市場的大贏家是兩大德國廠商和一家日本廠商。雖然今年七月美國汽車銷量總體只上漲了1%，但豪華車銷量在以雷克薩斯、奔馳、寶馬等爲代表的高端品牌的推動下卻躍升了6%。據《汽車新聞》（Automotive News）報道，雖然高端品牌只佔到美國汽車市場總份額的10.8%，但今年高端品牌卻貢獻了汽車市場銷量增幅的16%。2014年全年的豪車銷量預計將達到180萬臺，甚至有可能超過2007年183萬臺的歷史紀錄。
Some of the surge is coming effortlessly from the easy-money, low-interest-rate economy and pig-in-the-python demographics of the aging population. “Luxury brands offer great financing deals, and very attractive lease rates,” says independent analyst Warren Browne. “In addition, the age of the baby boomers supports the ‘I deserve this now that I have made some money’ purchase rationale, and I expect this demographic effect will continue for the next ten years.
高端品牌的銷量激增，與美國寬鬆的貨幣政策和低利率的經濟大環境有關，也與“嬰兒潮”一代進入老齡化有關。獨立分析師沃倫o布朗尼指出：“高端品牌會給出很划算的金融方案和非常有吸引力的租用費。另外，隨着‘嬰兒潮’一代人步入老年，也使他們產生了‘我既然賺了錢，就應該好好享受’的購車心態。我認爲這種人口紅利的影響還會持續10年。”But a bigger push is coming from the manufacturers themselves. They are refreshing their product lines faster than any time in memory and extending their brands in ways that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Few are holding back. Jaguar, a maker of sports cars and sport sedans, is working on a compact crossover, while Bentley is developing an SUV. They are following in the well-established tire tracks of Porsche. The sports car maker has doubled its sales with the Cayenne sport utility and Panamera four-door. At the same time, upscale manufacturers are pioneering new technologies that put substance behind their outsize price premiums. Mercedes is a leader in assisted driving while BMW pioneers carbon fiber research and Jaguar Land Rover perfects techniques in aluminum body structures.
更大的推動力則來自汽車廠商本身。他們正在以史無前例的速度更新產品線，並且以10年前根本無法想象的方式擴展他們的品牌。比如跑車品牌捷豹正在研發一款緊湊跨界車型，而賓利（Bentley）正在研發一款SUV。這兩家品牌都在複製保時捷的發展軌跡。保時捷的卡宴（Cayenne）SUV和四門版帕納梅拉（Panamera）的銷量已經翻了一番。與此同時，各大高端廠商也不遺餘力地開發創新技術，以便讓它的價格物有所值。比如奔馳已經成爲輔助駕駛技術的領軍者，而寶馬則積極開展碳纖維研究，捷豹路虎則進一步完善了鋁合金車身框架技術。There are lots of risks associated with this new dynamic business model, and it’s early days. All manufacturers want a share of luxury sales, and giants like General Motors are continuing to upgrade their popular-priced offerings, forcing consumers to choose between a stripped Cadillac and a loaded Chevy Impala. Says analyst Jessica Caldwell: “As luxury brands move down-market with their product offerings, mainstream brands are increasing content and in-car amenities. As a result, there is a bit of squeeze happening. Right now, luxury brands have a lot of equity built up over the years but that doesn’t last forever especially as car shoppers look for value.”
這種新的商業模式也帶來了不少風險，而且這纔是剛開始。所有汽車廠商都想從豪車銷售中分一杯羹，像通用汽車（General Motors）這樣的行業巨頭也在對旗下的平價車型進行持續升級，迫使消費者在減配版的凱迪拉克和高配版的雪佛蘭英帕拉（Chevy Impala）之間做選擇。汽車網站的分析師傑西卡o考德維爾表示：“隨着豪華品牌攜新產品進入平價市場，主流品牌也正在增加車內配置，提高舒適性，因此市場上出現了相互擠壓的情況。現在豪華品牌雖然擁有多年積攢下的家當，但這種優勢並不會永遠持續下去，尤其是購車者最關心的還是車的價值。”More worrisome for luxury manufacturers is the damage that could be done to long-established reputations as they move down the price ladder. History provides some lessons in how not to succeed. Those with long memories will recall GM’s efforts to turn a Chevrolet Cavalier into the Cadillac Cimarron in the 1980s or Mercedes’ half-hearted C230 Kompressor hatchback from the early aughts. Lexus boss Mark Templin warns that a $30,000 price may be the cut off. “You can’t build a Lexus with the quality, the durability, the reliability, the craftsmanship, the content that we put in a Lexus and sell it profitably under $30,000,” he tells Automotive News. “You just can’t do it.
對於豪車品牌來說，更值得擔心的是隨着他們的車型價格的下探，他們長期以來建立的聲譽是否會受到影響。歷史證明豪車賤賣也有失敗的例子。記性好的人可能還記得上世紀80年代通用汽車曾試圖把雪佛蘭Cavalier改成一款叫做凱迪拉克西馬倫（Cimarron）的車型；另外在本世紀頭10年，奔馳也推出了一輛差強人意的C230機械增壓掀背車。雷克薩斯的老闆馬克o湯普林警告道，30,000美元是高端品牌的紅線。他對《汽車新聞》表示：“以雷克薩斯的質量、耐久性、可靠性、工藝品質和配置，不可能賣到3萬美元以下還有利潤。根本做不到。”But where there is risk, there can be reward, and aggressive behavior has been paying off where it counts: higher sales and richer profits. Mercedes has been selling a front-wheel drive compact sedan, the CLA, for the better part of a year with a starting price of $29,900 and has moved 12,954 units in calendar 2014. The CLA I drove had a surprisingly sophisticated design and a smartly fitted interior. Likewise, Audi has managed to reinterpret its best features in the A3, which carries a MSRP of $30,975, without sacrificing too many of the brand’s traditional qualities.
然而有風險就有回報。大膽的嘗試也給高端品牌帶來了高銷量和高利潤。比如奔馳的前驅緊湊型轎車CLA的起價只有29,900美元，但從年初到現在，它的銷量已經達到12,954臺。我試駕過的那輛CLA具有非常複雜的設計，內飾的感覺也很相稱。奧迪則將它的精華功能重新佈局在A3裏，它的建議零售價也只有30,975美元，但並沒有犧牲多少該品牌一貫的質量。Lower-price cars make it difficult to achieve the lush profits upscale makers are used to. BMW has margin targets of 8-10%, but that will be under pressure as the proportion of smaller, lower-margin cars like the 1- and 2-series rises to more than 40 percent of the group’s overall vehicle sales from 25-30 percent currently.
低價車型很難實現高端廠商以往那種豐厚的利潤。寶馬的利潤目標是8%到10%，但對於寶馬1系、2系等低利潤車型來說，要實現這樣的利潤是有壓力的。但目前，1系、2系的銷量已經從寶馬公司全系車型銷量的25%到30%上升到了現在的40%。Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche is pushing for Mercedes to become the most profitable luxury-auto producer with a 10% margin goal, but he will have a hard time doing so by selling $30,000 CLA’s. A decade ago, Mercedes Benz transaction prices were 93% higher than the industry average. In 2013, that number went down to 75%, according to .
戴姆勒（Daimler）CEO迪特爾o柴奇希望推動梅塞德斯-奔馳成爲業內利潤率最高的豪車品牌，也就是達到10%的利潤目標。但是光靠銷售3萬美元的CLA恐怕是很難實現這個目標的。據汽車網站指出，10年前，梅塞德斯-奔馳的交易價格要比行業平均水平高出93%。到了2013年，這個數字已經下降到75%。Not every manufacturer is sharing in the swelling of the luxury brand market. Honda’s traditionally under-performing Acura seems to be in perpetual transition. Originally designed as a step-up brand, it has never been able to market its interpretation of frugal luxury. Nissan’s Infiniti, meanwhile, still lacks a strong identity and established reputation. It suffered a big loss earlier this year when its highly regarded leader Johan de Nysschen, who had been recruited from Audi, defected to equally-needy Cadillac.
也不是每個高端品牌都參與了大擴張。本田（Honda）旗下一向表現平平的高端品牌謳歌似乎永遠都在轉型。雖然一開始也被設計成高端品牌，但是謳歌這種“低調的奢華”一直沒有什麼市場。日產的英菲尼迪也仍然缺乏強烈的認同和聲譽。今年年初，英菲尼迪又遭受了一次重大損失——被外界寄予厚望的領導人約翰o德o尼琛跳槽到了凱迪拉克。De Nysschen’s first task will be propping up sales of the compact ATS and fullsize XTS, both of which have been disappointing, and the electric ELR, whose sales have been invisible. After he has been in Detroit for awhile, he may wish he is back in Germany, where he would be closer to heart of the luxury car business.
尼琛在凱迪拉克的第一個任務，就是如何提高緊湊車ATS和全尺寸轎車XTS的銷量，因爲這兩款車的表現都比較令人失望，電動車型ELR的銷量幾乎更是可以忽略不計。等他在底特律待了一陣之後，他說不定會希望能回到德國，畢竟在那裏，他會更接近豪車業務的中心。
