中國需求將亞洲液化天然氣價格推至3年高點

Chinese demand pushed Asian liquefied natural gas prices to a three-year high, as the country’s importers scramble for supplies in the face of Beijing’s move to reduce urban air pollution.

面對中國政府減少城市空氣污染的舉措，中國天然氣進口商爭相購入天然氣供應，這一需求將亞洲的液化天然氣的價格推高至3年來的高點。

This year’s rally in spot prices of the super-cooled fuel has surprised market executives and analysts, who had long been expecting a subdued market due to extra supplies of LNG from new projects. However, delays in production and China’s “2+26” pro-gas policy, aimed at controlling pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and 26 other cities, has propelled demand.

今年，這種超低溫燃料現貨價格的上漲令市場高管和分析師感到驚訝。長期以來他們一直預期，由於新的天然氣項目將提供額外的液化天然氣供應，市場反應將是疲軟的。然而，天然氣出產延遲及今年中國在“2+26”城市推行的親天然氣政策拉動了需求。這一政策的目的是控制北京、天津和其他26個城市的污染。

The Asian spot LNG index Japan-Korea Marker from S&P Global Platts rose to $10.04 per million British thermal units on Thursday, the highest level since December 2014, and a fifth higher since the same time last year.

標準普爾全球普氏(S&P Global Platts)的亞洲現貨液化天然氣指數日韓標杆(JKM)，週四升至每百萬英熱單位10.04美元，這是2014年12月以來的最高水平，比去年同期高五分之一。

“The unexpected winner of [China’s] environmental crackdown has been the huge increase in demand for natural gas,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.

“（中國）環保舉措的意外贏家，是對天然氣需求的大幅上升，”澳新銀行(ANZ)高級大宗商品策略師丹尼爾?海因斯(Daniel Hynes)說。

Chinese imports of LNG have been strong over the past 18 months, stepping up further in the second half of the year, which pushed Asian prices higher. In the first nine months of the year, import volumes rose 30 per cent, while winter demand was up about 40 per cent, according to energy consultants Wood Mackenzie.

過去18個月來，中國對天然氣的進口一直很強勁，今年下半年勢頭更強，將亞洲的天然氣價格推高。根據能源諮詢公司伍德麥肯茲(Wood Mackenzie)的數據，今年頭9個月，中國的天然氣進口量增加了30%，冬季的天然氣需求上升了約40%。

Due to the high demand, Chinese companies bought forward imports of contracted amounts of LNG and had to turn to the spot market, pushing up prices, said analysts.

分析師表示，由於需求旺盛，中國企業提前採購了天然氣合同中約定的進口量，不得不轉向現貨市場，從而推高了天然氣的價格。

PetroChina, for example, had bought around 70 per cent of its annual contract quantity by September, compared with 50 per cent last year, said Wood Mackenzie. “This means lower contracted offtake is left for the winter, and higher demand for spot,” said Wen Wang, China gas and LNG senior consultant.

比如，據伍德麥肯茲的數據，中石油(PetroChina)今年9月就採購了年度天然氣合同中約定數量的約70%，而去年同一時間只採購了50%。伍德麥肯茲中國天然氣和液化天然氣高級諮詢師Wen Wang說：“這意味着給冬天留下的合同剩餘量更少，對現貨的需求更高。”

The rise in Asian LNG prices comes as gas prices in Europe also increase in anticipation of higher demand in the face of colder weather. In the UK, “pipeline inflows into the country are reportedly stable, but prices are now subject to real and anticipated demand spikes as temperatures hit lower levels,” according to JBC Energy, a Vienna-based consultancy. Spanish prices were also firmer, it added.

亞洲液化天然氣價格上升適逢歐洲的天然氣價格也出現上升，原因是更寒冷的天氣導致市場預期對天然氣的需求即將升高。維也納諮詢公司JBC Energy表示，在英國，“據報經由輸氣管道進入該國的天然氣數量保持穩定，但隨着溫度降至更低，價格現在受實際需求和預期需求升高的影響”。該公司補充稱，西班牙的天然氣價格也更加堅挺。

Although the spot LNG market could remain tight in the near future, “there are enough downside risks to suggest prices are vulnerable to some weakness over the coming months”, said Mr Hynes.

儘管現貨天然氣市場可能在近期保持緊張，海因斯表示：“有足夠多的下行風險表明，價格容易受到未來數月的一些疲弱因素的影響。”

While Chinese LNG demand is expected to remain strong, steady shipments from delayed projects are expected to come to the market next year. Supplies from a ramp up of Chevron’s Wheatstone and Gorgon projects in Western Australia and exports from several projects in the US are also likely to mean that the LNG glut that has been anticipated will materialise in 2018.

儘管中國對液化天然氣的需求預計將保持強勁，一些推遲的天然氣項目提供的穩定天然氣供應要到明年才能上市。雪佛龍(Chevron)在澳大利亞西部的Wheatstone和Gorgon天然氣項目產量加大，這些項目帶來的天然氣供應，以及美國的幾個天然氣項目的出口，很可能意味着關於液化天然氣將供過於求的預測，可能會在2018年變爲現實。