中國小型銀行不良貸款比率激增

Bad loans are rising sharply at the lowest tiers of China’s financial sector, with some small commercial banks reporting delinquency rates of 20 per cent or more on their loan books.

中國金融業最低端機構的不良貸款正在急劇增長，部分小型商業銀行的財報顯示，其貸款賬簿中關注類貸款的佔比達到20%或以上。

Debt levels in China’s $29tn banking system has been described by some analysts as reaching “epidemic” levels as economic growth slows to the lowest level since the onset of the global financial crisis and corporations struggle to repay loans.

中國經濟增長放緩至全球金融危機爆發以來的最低水平，企業償貸難度較大。在這種大環境下，按照部分分析師的說法，中國規模達29萬億美元的銀行業體系中的債務水平正逼近“爆發點”。

City and rural commercial banks are a big wedge of China’s financial system, constituting nearly a quarter of assets in the country’s commercial banking sector.

城市和農村商業銀行是中國金融體系的一大組成部分，其資產佔中國商業銀行部門的近四分之一。

Earnings reports posted to the websites of city and rural banks during the past two months testify to deteriorating quality, with some revealing that more than 20 per cent of their loan books were at risk of missed payment or default.

過去兩個月城市和農村銀行網站上發佈的財報證明，它們的資產質量正在惡化。其中部分銀行的財報披露，其貸款賬簿上逾20%的貸款面臨拖欠或違約的風險。

“You can say that these rural and city commercial banks are the weakest part of China’s gigantic banking sector,” said Xia Le, chief Asia economist at BBVA Research in Hong Kong. “Financial risks are likely to unfold in them first.”

西班牙對外銀行(BBVA)研究部門駐香港的首席亞洲經濟學家夏樂表示：“可以說，在中國龐大的銀行業部門中，這些農村和城市商業銀行是最薄弱的一環。金融風險很可能會最先從它們身上爆發。”

Liuzhou Bank proved an early example last year when it suffered an unprecedented $4.9bn loan fraud , equivalent to a third of its total assets. Just 78.4 per cent of the bank’s loan book was considered “normal” by the end of the year.

柳州銀行(Liuzhou Bank)被證明是一個較早出現的例子。去年，該行遭遇了一場史無前例的、規模達49億美元的騙貸，這個數字相當於該行總資產的三分之一。截至去年底，該行貸款賬簿上只有78.4%的貸款被認定爲“正常”貸款。

Special mention loans, which are overdue but not yet considered non-performing, doubled at Liuzhou Bank to 19.84 per cent in 2015. Many analysts say this category should be included in the count of distressed assets.

該行的關注類貸款佔比在2015年上升了一倍，達到19.84%。許多分析師表示，這一類貸款應該被納入不良資產的統計中。

By that broader measure, China’s average level of bad debt at commercial banks expands from the official 1.75 per cent at the end of March to between 5-7 per cent.

按照這一擴大後的衡量標準，3月底中國各商業銀行的平均壞債水平會從官方數字1.75%升至5%到7%。

China has several thousand city or rural banks. Several of those banks included in a small survey conducted by the Financial Times had rates of special mention loans between 10 to 15 per cent of total loans.

中國有幾千家城市或農村商業銀行。英國《金融時報》展開的小型調查所涵蓋的幾家此類銀行，其關注類貸款佔比在10%到15%之間。

At Jiangsu Wujiang Rural Commercial Bank, just 76 per cent of the bank’s loans were considered normal by the end of last year, while special mention loans had soared to 21.43 per cent, the highest of all the bank reports surveyed.

在江蘇吳江農村商業銀行(Jiangsu Wujiang Rural Commercial Bank)，截至去年底只有76%的貸款被認定爲正常貸款，關注類貸款佔比則激增至21.43%，是上述調查所涵蓋的銀行中佔比最高的。

The collapse of a city bank poses the risk of a “small-scale or geographical crisis” in China but not systemic risk to the system as a whole, according to Xia at BBVA.

按照夏樂的說法，城商銀行崩盤或導致中國發生“小規模或局地性危機”，但不會對整個金融體系構成系統性風險。

Small banks are somewhat disconnected from the political process in Beijing, said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at London-based Enodo Economics. That means oversight on the lenders has been weaker than at national-level banks. Leaders at small banks are therefore more likely to bow to local economic pressure, such as keeping alive steel mills and other large employers at the expense of asset quality, Choyleva said.

倫敦Enodo Economics首席經濟學家黛安娜•喬伊列娃(Diana Choyleva)表示，小銀行與北京方面的政治進程多少有些脫節。這意味着，對這類銀行的監管一直比全國性銀行弱。喬伊列娃表示，出於這個原因，小銀行的負責人更有可能屈從於當地在經濟方面的壓力，比如會以犧牲資產質量爲代價，確保鋼廠及其他大型用人單位的存活。