中國大型銀行不良貸款快速上升

Bad loans at China’s biggest banks rose at the fastest pace in at least seven years during the third quarter as a slowing economy squeezed corporate borrowers. Analysts said the fall in asset quality was manageable.

隨着中國經濟放緩令企業借款人承壓，中國各大銀行第三季度的不良貸款大幅增長，增速達到至少7年來的最高水平。但分析師們表示，資產質量下降仍然可控。

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, the country’s two biggest banks by assets, reported their biggest quarterly jump in bad loans in at least seven years, with rises of 9 and 10 per cent respectively.

中國工商銀行(ICBC)和中國建設銀行(CCB)發佈的季報顯示，兩家銀行第三季度不良貸款分別增長9%和10%，是至少7年來的最大增幅。按資產計算，工行和建行是中國最大的兩家銀行。

Analysts warned against misinterpreting the rise at the two banks. “The market might be over-concerned with ICBC and CCB’s nonperforming loans,” said Dorris Chen, China financial institutions analyst at Standard Chartered. “NPLs rose because these banks are reluctant to sell them to distressed asset managers. It doesn’t indicate a bigger underlying problem with asset quality.”

但分析師表示，不應誤讀這兩家銀行不良貸款的增長。渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)的中國金融機構分析師陳睆明(Dorris Chen)表示：“市場很可能對工行和建行的不良貸款過於擔憂了。不良貸款之所以上升，是因爲這些銀行不願將它們出售給不良資產管理公司。它並不意味着資產質量出現了更嚴重的根本問題。”

Data from the central bank this week showed that lenders have trimmed their exposure to China’s troubled property sector. Loans to home buyers and developers fell 5 per cent in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier.

中國央行本週發佈的數據顯示，銀行已經削減了它們在陷入困境的房地產領域的敞口。第三季度發放給購房者和開發商的貸款同比下降了5%。

Many lenders have been aggressively selling or writing off bad loans this year, but the biggest banks are opting to try to keep bad loans in-house in the hope of recovering at least some of the value for themselves.

許多銀行今年大舉出售或覈銷不良貸款，但最大的幾家銀行選擇努力將不良貸款留在本行，寄望於至少能夠回收一些價值。

Agricultural Bank of China has the highest bad-loan ratio among the big five banks at 1.29 per cent as of the end of September, while that of Bank of China, the country’s fourth-largest lender, was the lowest at 1.06 per cent.

中國農業銀行(ABC)在今年9月末的不良貸款率高達1.29%，是中國5大銀行裏最高的，中國第四大銀行中國銀行(BOC)的不良貸款率爲1.07%。

Analysts say that while the reported rise in bad loans is not cause for concern, the bigger risk is that such figures fail to reflect the true extent of delinquencies. Banks can disguise overdue loans by rolling over or extending them.

分析師表示，儘管不用擔心不良貸款的上升，但更大的風險在於，此類數據是否真實反映出了逾期貸款的真實水平。銀行可以通過貸款滾轉或延期來掩蓋逾期貸款。

But in a bright spot for the banks, net interest margins – a measure of the spread between what banks pay for deposits and what they charge for loans – have held up better than many analysts expected.

但這些銀行數據中的一個亮點是，淨息差（貸款產生的利息收入與爲存款支付的利息之差）依然高於許多分析師的預期。

CCB’s net interest margin was unchanged at 2.80 per cent, while at Agricultural Bank of China, it dipped slightly to 2.91 per cent from 2.93 per cent three months earlier. But it remained comfortably above the levels of 2012 and 2013.

建行的淨息差維持2.80%不變，農行從3個月前的2.93%略降至2.91%，但這依然遠高於2012年和2013年的水平。

Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in March that the longstanding cap on bank deposit interest rates is likely to be phased out in two years. Such reforms are expected to squeeze bank margins as lenders are forced to compete for customer funds by offering higher deposit rates.

中國央行行長周小川在今年3月表示，可能在兩年內取消實施已久的銀行存款利率上限。預計此類改革將會擠壓銀行業的利潤率，因爲銀行將不得不通過提高存款利率來爭搶客戶資金。

But many analysts believe the slowing economy will force policy makers to extend that timeline in order to prevent rising deposit rates from feeding through to higher lending costs, creating another drag on an economy that is already slowing.

但許多分析師認爲，經濟放緩將迫使政策制定者延遲取消上限，以免存款利率上升傳導至貸款成本，導致後者上升，從而進一步拖累業已放緩的經濟。

China’s economy grew at a 7.3 per cent annual pace in the third quarter, down from 7.5 per cent in the second quarter and the slowest pace in five years.

中國經濟在第三季度的同比增速爲7.3%，低於二季度的7.5%，創下5年來的最低增速。

The central bank has also taken a series of targeted easing measures this year. Last month it injected Rmb500bn into the banking system via loans to the big banks. It followed up this month with an additional Rmb200bn in loans to midsize lenders. That has helped lower funding costs for banks.

中國央行今年還採取了一系列定向寬鬆措施。上月，它通過向大銀行發放貸款，向銀行體系注入5000億元人民幣。本月，它進一步向中等規模銀行注入2000億元人民幣的流動性。這幫助銀行降低了資金成本。

On the lending side, meanwhile, rates have remained relatively high as banks, wary of the slowing economy, demand higher interest rates to compensate for the increased default risk.

與此同時，銀行由於擔心經濟放緩而提高了貸款利率來補償違約風險的上升，使得貸款利率依然保持相對高位。

At the same time, a regulatory crackdown on off-balance-sheet credit from trust companies and other non-bank lenders has driven some weaker borrowers back to traditional banks. That has helped prop up lending rates.

同時，監管機構對信託公司和其他非銀行貸款機構的表外信貸的打擊，導致一些實力較弱的借款者重新回到傳統銀行。這也幫助推升了貸款利率。