呼喚美國的馬克龍

Oh, for an American Macron! Why isn’t it possible in the US for a presidential candidate to leave his or her party and run as the representative of a new movement, and win? Why can’t Americans just reshuffle their political landscape and build a new majority?

呼喚美國的馬克龍(Macron)！美國總統候選人爲什麼沒有可能退出所在政黨、然後代表一個新的運動參選並獲勝？美國人爲什麼不能對政治版圖進行洗牌，構建新的多數？

We know the answer. France has a parliamentary system with a strong president, whereas the US’s winner-takes-all elections and single member districts tie it to the two-party system forever. This widespread view is known in political science as Duverger’s law. It holds that multiple parties are far more likely where proportional representation operates. But under first-past-the-post, a vote for a third party is wasted.

我們知道答案。法國擁有總統權力較大的議會民主制度，而美國勝者通吃的選舉和單議席選區讓它與兩黨體系永遠綁定。這在政治學上被稱爲“迪維爾熱定律”（Duverger’s law）。按照這個廣受認同的定律，比例代表制更有可能帶來多黨格局。但在“簡單多數當選”選舉制度下，投給第三政黨的選票被浪費了。

So while the same underlying dynamics shaped the American and French presidential elections — radical disaffection with traditional parties and the status quo — they led to dramatically different results. In France the traditional party candidates were knocked out in the first round, leaving the far-right and a standard bearer for a new movement, who then won. In the US, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump were the anti-establishment candidates. Mr Sanders provided serious competition to Hillary Clinton, the establishment candidate on the left, but lost to her.

因此，儘管相同的基本面——對傳統政黨和現狀深感不滿——塑造了美國和法國的總統選舉，但它們導致了截然不同的結果。在法國，傳統政黨候選人在第一輪選舉中遭到淘汰，剩下了一個極右翼候選人和一個新運動旗手，後者在隨後的對決中勝出。在美國，伯尼?桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)和唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)都是反體制的候選人。桑德斯曾對左翼的體制內候選人希拉里?克林頓(Hillary Clinton)構成激烈競爭，但最後出局。

Mr Trump took over the other major party and won. As political commentator Rich Yeselson wrote before the election: “If this were Europe, Reince Priebus, Paul Ryan, and Mitch McConnell might accept some tactical support from an interloping rightwing party but vigorously distance themselves from that party’s more noxious views and its leading politicians. Here, they can’t renounce Trump without renouncing the muscle and bones of their own political organisation?.?.?.?”

特朗普在另一個主要政黨勝出並贏得大選。正如政治評論員裏奇?耶塞爾鬆(Rich Yeselson)在大選前寫得那樣：“如果這是在歐洲，雷恩斯?普瑞巴斯(Reince Priebus)、保羅?瑞安(Paul Ryan)和米奇?麥康奈爾(Mitch McConnell)可能接受某個中途殺入的右翼政黨的戰術支持，但會堅決與該黨較爲有害的觀點及其主要政客保持距離。而在美國，如果他們不放棄所在政治組織的基本綱領，就不能公開與特朗普撇清關係……”